Russian dictator Vladimir Putin instructed Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to implement a ceasefire from 12:00 on January 6 to 00:00 on January 7.

An interesting nuance is that Putin announced the truce after negotiations with Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Actually, it was the Turkish leader who called Putin with a proposal to unilaterally cease fire.

In this situation, Erdogan acts as the main negotiator interested in creating the image of a “peacemaker” (primarily before the presidential elections in Turkey). He clearly expects that by the summer he will be able to bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table.

But such a step allowed Putin, first of all, to send a signal to non-Western states. That is, the countries of the Middle East that took a neutral position, India and China, will once again hear about Russia’s readiness for a truce. That Russia, they say, is ready to cease fire, but Ukraine, as you can see, is not, and even on such a “holy holiday”. The fact is that in the Middle East, where the religious factor is of quite significant importance, such a statement of the question will be clearly perceived. In the mass media of these countries, it will be profitable for Russia to “sell” such a position. In addition, we will be able to observe a situation when the international media will create messages favorable to Putin about Ukraine’s refusal to go to the armistice.

Although Ukraine’s disagreement was absolutely expected. After all, we all remember the “Easter”, “bread” and dozens of other truces in 2014-2021, violated by Russia. Moreover, we remember the Ilovai “ceasefire”, which ended with a cauldron.

The purpose of all the mentioned ceasefires on the part of Russia was only to get a break, regroup, find weak points in Ukrainian positions and strike. Undoubtedly, the Russians pursue this goal even today.

Secondly, Putin sent a signal to the domestic audience as well. His proposal should be considered as the first step towards freezing the conflict following the example of 2015. That is, he is talking about readiness to start negotiations and sign the conditional “Minsk-3”. So to speak, the first tentative step.

Another important point in this context is that Russian propaganda actively spread the thesis about Putin’s trip to Donetsk. Of course, Putin did not intend to go anywhere and will not go. But against the background of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s trips to the front during active hostilities, the absolute lack of visits to the occupied territories is a blow to Putin’s image.

This problem for Putin will also help to solve the disagreement of Ukraine to go to the “Christmas truce” proposed by him. It was said that Putin was going to Donetsk, but the “Ukrainian junta” did not allow it again, continuing the shelling.

In addition, today there was information about possible sabotage and even intentions of the Russians to blow up some churches. Given Putin’s past in the KGB and all his methods of waging war against Ukraine, this option is quite acceptable. Such a situation will also create a powerful effect that the Russian Federation will be able to profitably sell in the mass media, both in the foreign and domestic arenas. If there are explosions in several churches during religious services, Russia will try to accuse Ukraine of its own terrorist attacks. At the same time, the mass media of the Russian Federation will frame this as another fake that Russia is supposedly “at war with a terrorist regime.” He said, nothing is sacred for Ukraine. Remembering how high-rise buildings in Kashirka and Volgodonsk exploded before Putin came to power, it is easy to believe in similar scenarios in Russia, with several dozen victims for propaganda effect. This version deserves attention in the context of the fact that both sides are currently preparing for active hostilities. Moreover, a new wave of mobilization is being prepared in Russia. Thus, such an operation under a false flag is beneficial to the Russian Federation for the rallying of Russians.

But the most important thing is that Putin is sending a signal to the USA and the EU that they are ready to sit down at the negotiating table. This is important, especially in light of the news about the transfer of armored personnel carriers by France and Patriot by Germany, as well as the announcement of a new US aid package.

Maksym Yali, candidate of political sciences, professor of the National Aviation University, corresponding member of the Academy of Political Sciences of Ukraine