According to the forecast, the real GDP of Ukraine will grow by 4.1% in 2024, and economic growth will accelerate to 6.4% in 2025.

The National Bank expects a slight increase in real GDP in 2023 – by 0.3%, while in 2024 real GDP of Ukraine will grow by 4.1%, and in 2025 economic growth will accelerate to 6.4%.

As the head of the National Bank, Andriy Pishnyi, said at the briefing, the worsening of the forecast compared to the October estimates is due primarily to the consequences of the energy terror, as well as a revision of the main assumption regarding the duration of security risks. The latter will lead to a delay in the full unblocking of ports, which will hold back the potential for export recovery.

“The recovery of the economy was interrupted as a result of Russian terrorist attacks against the energy infrastructure. As security risks decrease, Ukraine will return to sustainable economic growth in 2024-2025. The National Bank expects a slight increase in real GDP in 2023 – by 0.3%,” he said . .

In addition, as a result of the accumulation of problems related to sowing and harvesting campaigns in war conditions, according to the National Bank’s estimates, this year’s harvests will be smaller. At the same time, the forecast assumes that during 2023 it will be possible to avoid significant additional destruction of the energy infrastructure, and business and the government will take effective measures to level the consequences of already destroyed capacities.

The regulator assumes that the reduction of security risks, together with the restoration of full-fledged operation of ports, increase of harvests, gradual restoration of production capacities, adjustment of logistics and revival of domestic demand, including thanks to the return of forced migrants, will contribute to the growth of the economy in 2024-2025.

“Soft fiscal policy will also play an important role in the future. Thanks to all these factors, Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 4.1% in 2024, and economic growth will accelerate to 6.4% in 2025,” Pyshnyi said.

Ukrainian economy in war conditions:

On March 18, 2022, the International Monetary Fund announced that it expects Ukraine’s GDP to fall by 35% in 2022 due to Russia’s military invasion.

On May 6, 2022, the Institute of Economic Research and Political Consultation announced that it will take 5 to 10 years to restore the Ukrainian economy.

On May 28, 2022, the executive director of the Center for Economic Strategy, Hleb Vyshlinsky, predicted that the Ukrainian economy would fall by a third due to the war.

On October 12, 2022, the IMF predicted the fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 and decided not to make forecasts for Ukraine for the next 5 years.

On January 25, 2023, a UN report was published, according to which 35% of the Ukrainian economy was destroyed due to the Russian invasion.

The draft state budget for 2023 envisages real GDP growth by 4.6%.