But, let’s say, if the USA agreed to give us F-16 now, then it would be F-16 modifications of F-16C. They are the most useful in the war against Russia

But we should not forget that the production cycle of the F-16 aircraft lasts more than two years. Therefore, if the company receives an order for their production now, we will not receive the planes earlier than in 2-3 years. The only option for us is to get already used planes that are in other countries.

Today, the Netherlands, planning to replace its F-16s with more modern F-35s, has allegedly agreed to give its planes to Ukraine. But it should be taken into account that the F-16 has several modifications.

So, the Netherlands has the oldest F-16A (single-seater) or F-16B (two-seater) in service. They have gone through several cycles of modernization, but are not the most modern: they are trained for air combat and have limited capabilities for striking ground targets. But, let’s say, if the USA agreed to give us F-16 now, then it would be F-16 modifications of F-16C. They are the most useful in the war against Russia, because they have more opportunities to strike ground targets with the use of high-precision weapons. That is, they have appropriate aiming equipment.

An almost fantastic option is for Ukraine to acquire French Rafale fighters. They are one of the best, perfect and popular in the world

Given that the US budget includes money for training Ukrainian pilots to operate F-16 and F-15 aircraft, this means that the US did plan to transfer these aircraft to us. And here it is interesting that a few months ago the Americans withdrew two squadrons of F-15 fighters from Okinawa. This means that fifty planes have become available to us. It is only necessary to remember that these F-15s are physically older and, accordingly, have a smaller remaining resource. However, they are also “pure fighters”, not intended for striking ground targets.

In theory, they can do this, but only with the use of unguided aerial bombs. That is, as the Russians do today, when they drive high-tech Su-34s over our positions, dropping ordinary unguided bombs and placing themselves under air defense fire. Unlike them, more modern F-16 C and D modification fighters would be able to use guided air bombs with a flight range of up to several tens of kilometers. They can be used to strike without entering the zone of operation of Russian air defense.

In addition, the use of high-precision weapons completely changes the philosophy of aviation. If earlier the calculation was how many planes are needed to defeat one target – with high-precision weapons, the question is “how many targets can be hit by one plane.” That is, the appearance of more modern aircraft in Ukraine will reduce the need for their large number. Conventionally speaking, they will not need fifty, but, for example, thirty units.

Why is this important? The USA can give us quite a lot of aircraft (they have several hundred of the same F-16s in storage). However, the question should be asked: how many planes will our air force be able to receive? After all, airplanes still need pilots and ground staff.

If our air force can provide, conditionally, three squadrons of these aircraft, it is likely that such a number will gradually be transferred to us.

Also important is the question of which countries will support the decision to transfer fighter jets. The potential of used F-16 aircraft in Europe is gradually running out. The Netherlands, Norway and Denmark are already replacing them with modern F-35s. Modern modifications of these planes can still be found in Greece and Turkey, but these countries cannot be taken into account, they also need these planes. Actually, that’s all.

Experts can also predict, for example, Ukraine’s acquisition of Swedish Grippen fighters. They are quite good, light and multifunctional. In addition, they are easy to maintain, as they were designed for emergency workers.

The third option is the transfer to Ukraine of Eurofighter aircraft, which are in service with several countries, for example, Italy and Spain. But in both cases, we can talk about a limited amount of transmission.

And the last, almost fantastic option is Ukraine’s acquisition of French Rafale fighters. They are one of the best, perfect and popular in the world. It may be recalled that France was the first country to transfer modern artillery to us in the spring, and then announced the transfer of wheeled tanks. Therefore, we do not rule out the option of the transfer of aircraft by France. But, most likely, Ukraine will receive F-16 from the Netherlands or the USA.

Yes, today the Pentagon declares that there is no question of transferring military aircraft to Ukraine. But remember how a few days ago, at official briefings, the US explained why there is no question of the transfer of American Abrams tanks. We heard that these tanks are difficult for Ukraine, etc. But a few days pass, and we have a decision on the transfer of these tanks. It is unknown what triggered the situation. The processes related to the transfer of weapons to us are public.

Another example is the story of the HARM radar missiles: until the Russians reported the wreckage of these missiles, no one even knew about their delivery to Ukraine. It was not announced. It is possible that non-public work is being done with the planes. And we will hear about the adopted decision at the next Rammstein meeting.

Andriy Kharuk, military historian, professor of the National Academy of Ground Forces named after Hetman Petro Sahaidachny