Due to the unpreparedness of the Russian forces for active operations, analysts believe that a significant increase in their offensive operations this winter is unlikely.
The main phase of Russian offensive operations continues in the Luhansk region, but Russia lacks sufficient free reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of its offensive.
This is reported in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on February 19. Due to the unpreparedness of the Russian forces for active operations, analysts believe that a significant increase in their offensive operations this winter is unlikely.
ISW notes that Russian ground forces, as a rule, operate in conventional doctrinal formations and units, and not in battalion-tactical groups or other special structures.
“The absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military is continuing to try to replace equipment, especially tanks, that were lost during previous failed offensive operations. It is almost certain that Russian forces still have some restored mechanized units in reserve, but the direction of these limited “Reserves to the front line in Luhansk region are unlikely to fundamentally change the course of the current offensive,” analysts note.
According to the ISW report, Russian forces operating on the front lines in and near Luhansk Oblast are drawn almost entirely from the Western Military District, with some reinforcements from other factions.
“This indicates that the Russian military command has returned to the traditional structure of managing military districts, according to which all units in a separate geographical area fall under the responsibility of one military district,” analysts write.
ISW also writes that the return to doctrinal structures is a turning point in the structure of Russian forces and the campaign plan. The Ministry of Defense of Russia is currently carrying out a series of reforms aimed at formalizing and professionalizing the Russian armed forces and preparing for a long war in Ukraine.
“The Russians are benefiting less from this return to normal military operations than they might have hoped because of the greatly degraded state of their forces. They have not allowed enough time to train their mobilized reservists to standards sufficient to support large-scale offensive mechanized maneuver warfare; they clearly do not there is enough equipment needed to equip the restored units,” ISW notes.
The war in Ukraine – news
As reported, President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the Russian invaders cannot advance far during their new offensive, as they are no longer as strong as before. The armed forces of Ukraine are much stronger than the troops of the aggressor country. According to him, it does not matter whether this offensive is new or old, since there are no more compromises. Zelensky recently stated in an interview with the BBC that the Russian offensive has already begun.
According to ISW analysts, the war has exhausted the reserves of equipment and manpower of the occupying country, which are necessary for a successful new offensive in the east of Ukraine.
During fierce battles, the Russians have been trying to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region for more than one month, but they are suffering huge losses.
