US intelligence believes that in the coming years China will be less susceptible to military adventures than previously expected.
China has launched a massive crackdown on military commanders after revelations of widespread corruption that cast doubt on Beijing’s expansionist ambitions in Taiwan. Bloomberg writes about this with reference to American intelligence data.
“President Xi Jinping’s massive military purge comes as widespread corruption emerged as having undermined his efforts to modernize the military and cast doubt on China’s ability to fight a war,” the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Corruption turned out to be especially large-scale in the Chinese Missile Forces and the corresponding segment of the military-industrial complex. According to people in the know, things are so bad there that the United States now has significantly less faith in large-scale Chinese military activity in the coming years.
At the same time, Bloomberg cites several blatant manifestations of corruption in the Chinese army, which American intelligence allegedly knows about. In particular, it is alleged that in some cases, corrupt officials poured ordinary water into rockets instead of fuel. It also mentions “huge fields of missile silos” in western China, where protective caps do not function properly, making it impossible to “ensure efficient launch” of missiles.
“The United States believes that corruption in the People’s Liberation Army [КНР] “has weakened confidence in its overall capabilities, especially when it comes to missile forces, and has also set back some of Xi Jinping’s top modernization priorities,” Bloomberg writes.
The publication notes that it was unable to obtain official comments from either the US authorities or Beijing. But evidence of a corrupt purge has surfaced in recent months. Thus, it is known that on December 29, China’s highest legislative body dismissed nine top military personnel from their positions, in particular five associated with the missile force, and at least two from the Equipment Development Department, which is responsible for arming the military.
In addition, a few days ago, China’s main political advisory body publicly fired three heads of state-owned missile manufacturers. This spate of purges comes after the October ouster of former Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who had been in the post for just seven months.
It is noted that this is only what is known from the public space, because the PRC army does not disclose the facts of investigations against corrupt officials.
China’s plans for Taiwan
As wrote, Beijing has repeatedly hinted quite transparently at its readiness to absorb Taiwan – if necessary, then by force. For example, at the beginning of the year, Xi Jinping publicly called on the military to prepare for war, although he did not specify what kind.
During a face-to-face meeting with Biden in November, Xi Jinping directly acknowledged that renewed Chinese control over the island nation was inevitable, according to media reports.
In his New Year’s address to the nation, Xi also said that China’s “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable. He emphasized that “this is the main national interest” and referred to the desire of the people, on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
