The situation has become more tense after the latest Russian military exercises.
Russia is trying to use unrecognized Transnistria to destabilize the situation in Moldova. In particular, the Kremlin is preparing the information ground to justify its escalation in the region.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, at the end of 2023, the Moldovan authorities accused Russian peacekeepers of numerous violations. Thus, they improperly used drones during exercises, which caused an information attack from a pro-Kremlin military blogger.
Members of the Moldovan delegation to the OSCE Joint Control Commission during a meeting on January 18 demanded an investigation into the Russian military. Peacekeepers used small arms, UAVs and simulated weapons during a training exercise to repel a sabotage attack on a peacekeeping outpost in the Moldovan security zone in December 2023.
Moldovan authorities said that the presence and use of these weapons by Russian peacekeeping forces in the security zone violated protocols. However, the Russians did not properly disclose some of these weapons and drones.
In response, a well-known Russian blogger accused Moldova of increasing pressure on the unrecognized Transnistria due to calls for the withdrawal of peacekeepers and economic pressure. According to him, the country’s government has imposed “double” duties on Transnistrian businesses, amounting to approximately $16 million for an indefinite period of time. This will supposedly lead to an increase in the cost of living in Transnistria.
As ISW analysts recalled, recent changes to the Customs Code of Moldova require Transnistrian enterprises to pay import duties, which previously the quasi-entities paid only to Tiraspol. A pro-Kremlin blogger was outraged that this allegedly supports the “forceful reintegration” of Transnistria into Moldova and that Russia should prepare for further escalation.
“The statements by the Kremlin-linked Russian “military correspondent” and Krasnoselsky’s accusations are likely part of an information operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova, which borders NATO member Romania, and justifying any future Russian escalation in the region,” the ISW report said.
The situation in Transnistria
As you know, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is an unrecognized self-proclaimed state on the territory of Moldova.
In March 2022, PACE officially recognized Transnistria as a zone of Russian occupation.
The Ukrainian military has repeatedly emphasized that Russia geographically does not have the opportunity to strengthen its forces in the “PMR”, and therefore will not be able to “open a second front” from there.
