Economic growth will slow down in the new year, but will pick up again in 2025.

The Ukrainian economy will grow in the next three years, but the growth rates in different periods will vary greatly. This is reported in the NBU inflation report.

“In 2024, the economy will continue to grow due to the preservation of a soft fiscal policy and the high adaptability of business and the population to war conditions. However, the growth rate will be lower (3.6%) than last year, due to the expected decrease in harvests and increased pressure in the labor market,” the National Bank reports.

As for forecasts for the next two years, the NBU is optimistic about this period. According to analysts, in 2025-2026 growth will accelerate and amount to 5.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

This could be facilitated by a reduction in security challenges, improved consumer and investment sentiment, as well as new steps towards European integration.

How the Ukrainian economy grew

Last year, the Ukrainian economy performed better than expected. Back in the fall, the NBU improved its expectations for real GDP growth from 2.9% to 4.9% per year, which was associated with the high adaptability of business and the population to war conditions.

In October last year, GDP growth accelerated to 10%: this was made possible due to high agricultural yields.