A possible defeat for Ukraine will have serious consequences for Europe, CEPA experts note.

On February 26, President Macron said that the Europeans could send troops to Ukraine. The idea was criticized in a number of countries, but there was another important point in his statement – it reflected a growing consensus among Europeans that a Russian victory would mean a serious defeat for everyone.

According to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), the risk of defeat for Ukraine if arms supplies continue to slow down is real. EU leaders must now implement their vision of strategic autonomy by sending troops to Ukraine.

“Any EU forward force would free up Ukrainian units for use at the front, helping to increase the fighting force. Passive support would allow the EU to reform Ukrainian logistics and place maintenance closer to the front line, rather than redeploying assets to Poland and Romania for repairs,” they note. experts.

At the same time, more active missions may include border security, protection of large cities or air defense zones west of the Dnieper. Such actions will prevent Russia from opening another front from Belarus and will stop attacks by cruise missiles and drones against Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure, the authors of the article believe.

“Any deployment of EU troops would send a strong signal to Moscow and Washington that this is a force that should be taken seriously. Of course, the use of military forces will require a clear message to Putin that EU operations will not be escalatory, as EU forces will only conduct defensive operations.” – the material says.

Such an EU military operation on Ukrainian territory would have serious consequences. First, the EU’s strategic autonomy would demonstrate its readiness to militarily defend an independent and democratic Ukraine. Such an EU defense force would legitimize the bloc’s role and value, since its primary purpose would be to protect civilians and infrastructure.

Second, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague is investigating Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure as war crimes. The humanitarian and legal position would be understandable, since EU forces would deter attacks and EU air defense batteries could protect major Ukrainian cities from Russian cruise missiles and drones.

Third, given that the EU already operates a Military Mission in Support of Ukraine (EUMAM-Ukraine) to train and equip 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers, moving EU-flag forces to Ukraine will improve the quality of training. In particular, this will enable EU advisers and trainers to adhere to Ukrainian TTP (tactics, technique, procedure).

“Ukrainian military and security forces are, after all, spread out to defend against the possibility of another Russian invasion from Belarus. Deploying EU forces along these border regions would allow Ukraine to commit more of their resources and personnel directly to the eastern line of contact. Such EU defensive forces would free up more than 20 Ukrainian brigades to prepare and carry out EUMAM combat missions,” the material says.

According to experts, if the EU seeks to achieve strategic autonomy and ensure that Ukraine remains free and independent, then it is a vital European interest to ensure that Russia does not defeat Ukraine militarily. Ultimately, the EU has the opportunity to stop the imperial seizure of territories by sending its defensive forces to Ukraine.

“Obviously, the presence of any EU forces in Ukraine is associated with risk, but Putin is seeking to use risk avoidance. The EU cannot allow it to be paralyzed by the fear that the bloc’s military may suffer losses. This will be a purely defensive mission to maintain sovereignty and peace in the European continent,” the experts concluded.

Sending Western troops to Ukraine: what preceded it

French President Emmanuel Macron announced the possible dispatch of military personnel to Ukraine in the future. If such a decision is made, soldiers from Western countries will not participate in hostilities, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejournet emphasized.

The government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has no plans to send troops to Ukraine for a large-scale deployment. This idea was also not supported in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and other countries.

The official speaker of the National Security Council at the White House, Adrienne Watson, also noted that the United States will not send its troops to the front in Ukraine.