Li Hui, the Special Representative of the People’s Republic of China for the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war, is completing a working visit to the Russian Federation, Poland and Ukraine. Based on the results of the meetings that took place during this visit, it can be concluded that China’s attitude towards the Russian war against Ukraine has not changed in any way. The Chinese authorities have not officially announced any new or updated visions. That is, everything remains within the framework of the approach that was outlined earlier. We are talking, in particular, about resolving problematic issues through negotiations, taking into account the “legitimate security interests” of the Russian Federation, and so on.
Why is Special Representative Li Hui’s next trip happening now? Here we must remember that for some time China was not very willing to raise the issue of Ukrainian issues.
Even when he reported on the results of negotiations between Chinese officials and Western officials. Therefore, perhaps the PRC has now decided to reaffirm its position as a state striving for peace.
However, it should be understood that this will in no way lead to any changes. We see that before his visit to Ukraine, the special representative of China visited Russia and Poland. The statement following Li Hui’s meeting in the Russian Federation indicated the need to take into account the “legitimate security interests of the Russian Federation.” Warsaw presented him with a position very close to the Ukrainian one, but from Li Hui the Polish Foreign Ministry heard exactly the same thing that we have repeatedly heard. That is, it is unlikely that China will deviate from its vision and suddenly decide that it needs to start putting pressure on Russia
Rather, this visit has more image significance. This is an attempt to remind the world that China is a powerful state that is trying to do something to end the war.
However, given that the approaches have not changed, these aspirations should not be overestimated.
Of course, China is putting forward a proposal to hold an international conference with the participation of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. But, again, this does not change the original position of the PRC and is more like a diplomatic maneuver on Beijing’s part. That is, such a conference may ultimately look like meetings of the UN Security Council, at which the Russian Federation continues to pursue its line, and Ukraine voices its own. In simple terms, China is offering negotiations for the sake of negotiations.
Now it seems that for China, Ukraine has clearly emerged as part of the world under the leadership of the United States. Thus, we have become hostages of the global Sino-American confrontation, and we should not expect a shift in the Chinese position in our favor.
One more point – Li Hui met separately with representatives of the Office of the President, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and, most interestingly, with First Deputy Prime Minister Sviridenko, this may indicate that not only the search for a peace formula was discussed, but also issues related to the activities of Chinese companies . Let me remind you that Ukraine included certain Chinese companies in the list of war sponsors. And this is a political moment that China does not like. Therefore, it can be assumed that Li Hui was trying to discuss this sensitive issue for Beijing.
However, again, this diplomatic tour will have more symbolic effects and consequences than real ones.
Vladimir Volya, political expert