It’s a clear political signal, but some experts downplay its military significance.

Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, closer to NATO territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening wider military confrontation with the alliance over support for Ukraine.

Foreign policy writes that the nuclear issue has been hanging over the heads of Western leaders since Russia invaded Ukraine. Western intelligence and open source experts have spent months tracking the status of the Russian deployment in Belarus, which Putin himself has framed as a warning to the West. The weapons transfer to Belarus marks one of the westernmost deployment points of the Kremlin’s nuclear arsenal.

The West’s reaction to the transfer of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus

The move of nuclear weapons makes a clear political message, but some experts have downplayed the military significance of the move, arguing that the weapons pose no greater threat to the alliance because they were moved only a few hundred miles closer to NATO territory.

“The Russians can reach any point in NATO with the nuclear missiles they have on their territory,” said Rose Gottemoeller, a former senior US arms control official and NATO deputy secretary general. “This will not change the threat situation in any way. So this is a purely political message.”

Others went further, saying that public reaction to the movement of nuclear weapons in Belarus simply plays into Russia’s hands.

“What’s the difference, exactly?” – Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Minister of Defense, said in an interview with Foreign Policy. “That’s why all the talk is about ‘Oh my God, we have nuclear weapons in Belarus, look what happens’. Come on. It’s just a Russian plan to take attention away from Ukraine on our agenda. But in reality it’s makes no difference to how Russia behaves.”

However, Putin could escalate nuclear threats against NATO in the near future, especially as Russia tries to rebuild its depleted military forces in Ukraine and sees Western military support for Kyiv beginning to wane. On the other hand, the West’s determination to resist nuclear blackmail is growing.

According to Gottemoeller, “Putin wants to make sure that there is anxiety in the current American and European debate about continued aid to Ukraine. Ukraine and NATO allies in Europe are not exactly immune from these threats, but they do not have the shock value that they had in the first days of the invasion.”

Nuclear deterrence

The US intelligence community has reported that Russia likely does not want to enter into direct military conflict with NATO, but indicated that the Kremlin will rely more on nuclear weapons to deter the US and NATO as the military rebuilds.

The Kremlin is believed to have about 6,000 nuclear warheads, including “tactical” and “strategic” nuclear weapons. As relations between Russia and the United States have steadily deteriorated in recent years, and since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, collapsed, both sides have abandoned arms control treaties.

Currently, Washington and Moscow have only one nuclear arms control treaty left – the New START treaty, which the Kremlin unilaterally suspended in 2023. The document limits the number of deployed warheads, missiles, bombers and strategic nuclear missile launchers that both sides can have, but does not apply to new types of weapons that Russia has been creating in recent years. According to Pentagon estimates, the Russian Federation has 2,000 non-strategic nuclear weapons that are not covered by the treaty.

Nuclear infrastructure in Belarus

Russia has already deployed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in Belarus by the end of 2022. Estonian intelligence estimates that Belarus is also home to 2,500-4,000 members of the Wagner mercenaries, many of them stationed at an old Soviet missile base 50 miles from Minsk.

By October 2023, a senior Lithuanian diplomat and other Western officials reported that Russia had built special storage facilities and railway systems in Belarus to potentially house a nuclear arsenal. Moscow has also begun training pilots in Belarus to operate aircraft capable of deploying nuclear weapons.

Open source analysts focused on two specific sites in Belarus. In the town of Asipovichi, located near Russia’s Iskander missile base, over the past year and a half, authorities have built a four-layer security fence and garrison garages for potential storage of launchers and warheads, according to Hans Christensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

In the northeastern part of Belarus, in the town of Prudok, Russia appears to have built a bunker and a large storage garage next to a railway entrance.

Other nuclear arsenal

Russia is building up its nuclear arsenal outside Belarus as well. The Kremlin says it has placed liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles on alert. The Russians are also introducing new nuclear submarines with cruise missiles. They launched hypersonic cruise missiles at Ukraine, but they were at least shot down with the help of American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems.

Other NATO leaders have said that strengthening the alliance’s nuclear and conventional deterrence is the only correct response to Putin’s saber attacks.

Threat of nuclear strike in 2022 – top news

American journalists found out that Moscow really wanted to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons in 2022. Russia spread a fake story about a “dirty bomb” that Kyiv was supposed to use at high altitude.

The Kremlin refused to comment on media reports that Russia was preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022.

Reuters later reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West that Russia is technically ready for nuclear war. Moscow inherited the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons and therefore has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear warheads.