The consequences of a partial or complete defeat of Kyiv would be catastrophic, the columnist emphasized.

The West must step up its assistance to Ukraine because if it falls, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s next target could be Europe – a worst-case scenario many governments are already considering. Columnist Ian Martin writes about this in his material for The Times.

“July, Russian troops are at the gates of Kiev. President Zelensky goes on emergency television to repeat his bold words, first spoken in February 2022, that he does not need to be taken out of Ukraine. No, he needs ammunition to stay and fight with the Russians. If only the West had listened and done more when the brave Ukrainians begged for help, it could have made a difference. While the allies squabbled and the United States eventually provided another $60 billion in aid as spring turned to summer, Putin’s troops “Breached lines in the south and east. Retreating Ukrainian troops only succeeded in slowing their advance. As the Russians approached the capital, a new wave of refugees fled Ukraine, seeking protection from the continuous bombing,” he describes a potential scenario.

The author of the column noted that Western politicians are now considering this “nightmare scenario.” Martin added that contrary to popular belief that the war in Ukraine is a perpetual “frozen conflict”, there is intense fighting on the front lines and there is a real risk that Ukrainian forces will be pushed back.

However, just a year ago the situation was completely different. Much hope was placed on Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive. However, then, unfortunately, it was not possible to implement the plans.

The governments that most support Ukraine are clearly worried and are considering even worst-case scenarios. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned several times that Ukraine is running out of money, urging Congress to pass a relief bill that has been stalled amid opposition from lawmakers.

“Russia’s advance would obviously be disastrous for the Ukrainians. It would also pose difficult challenges for the West. Would the allies send troops to defend Kiev? President Macron has clearly sensed the danger and is trying to steer the West towards a more forceful approach, raising the possibility of introducing ground troops. Others countries like Germany resolutely reject this. When will it finally be understood that peace for the European population can only be guaranteed by force? When Ukraine will fall and Putin will move on to threaten the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Sweden or Norway? No one who is a supporter of Ukrainian self-determination is against “Russian barbarism, does not want this nightmare scenario to come true. But the stakes are so high. We must understand the terrible cost of defeat,” Martin explained.

He emphasized that he advocates maximum military support on the basis that Ukraine must win. The consequences of a partial or complete defeat of Kyiv would be catastrophic. But, according to him, in the “comfortable West”, far from the front line, there is one lazy habit – wishful thinking and not being prepared for unpleasant surprises.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine came as a surprise to most countries. The day before, the US and UK governments had launched a public campaign to warn their allies. Few listened, except in Finland, Poland and the Baltic countries, where they know what it means to live next to an expansionist Russia.

A January European Council on Foreign Relations poll of 12 countries found that only 10% of voters thought Ukraine could win. About 37% are convinced that a compromise is most likely, and 19.5% believe that Russia will win in the end.

The columnist also recalled that other scenarios are possible besides the military defeat of Ukraine. For example, a coup d’etat may occur in Russia, or Donald Trump, if he wins the US elections, may try to impose a ceasefire and de facto force Ukraine to capitulate.

“Perhaps Ukraine will hold on, and Europe will rally, using the power of a GDP ten times larger than Russia, with a population three and a half times larger. We are now in danger of losing sight of one of the main lessons of the Ukrainian war. Retreat to European security complacency after the Cold War “Wars are not an option. We need to think very differently about how dangerous the threats are, arm ourselves accordingly, prepare for the worst, and at best hope to be pleasantly surprised,” he concluded.

War in Ukraine: what they write in Western media

The Economist writes that Ukraine is facing a major offensive from Russia. It is noted that Kyiv urgently needs to mobilize more troops and build a more reliable line of defense.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reports that only three types of weapons can help Ukraine reach a turning point in the war. The most pressing need of Ukrainian troops is artillery ammunition.