The main demographic challenges and threats to the development of Ukraine are also named.
According to the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, by January 1, 2041, the population of Ukraine within the 1991 borders may decrease to 28.9 million people. By January 1, 2051, this number may drop to 25.2 million.
The Ministry of Social Policy reports this. To prevent a rapid decline in the population in Ukraine, the department proposes to adopt a Strategy. It provides for ensuring a decent level and quality of life for every Ukrainian, creating conditions for the return of Ukrainian citizens from abroad and the reproduction of the population.
In particular, the Strategy identifies several key goals:
- creating conditions for increasing the birth rate, family support;
- reducing premature mortality rates;
- ensuring migration population growth;
- ensuring optimal distribution of the population on the territory of Ukraine;
- adaptation of society to demographic aging and the creation of conditions for active longevity;
- overcoming negative demographic trends through the development of opportunities for a quality life in Ukraine.
The advantage of this “scenario of change”, which proposes the adoption of the above-mentioned Strategy, is considered by the Ministry of Social Policy to be minimizing the consequences of the war and mitigating the demographic crisis, which will be reflected in significantly better parameters of demographic dynamics. It is noted that according to this option, the population will be 33.9 million people on January 1, 2041, and 31.6 million people on January 1, 2051.
At the same time, the main demographic challenges and threats to the development of Ukraine are the rapid decline in population, low birth rate, deteriorating health status of the population, an increase in the number of people with disabilities, a high level of premature mortality, mass forced immigration of the population, demographic aging, illegal removal of citizens from Ukraine and large-scale forced displacement of the population.
Population decline in Ukraine: forecasts
Director of the M. V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova said that after the end of the war, the population of Ukraine may decrease by a maximum of 3-4 million, but this is the most pessimistic forecast. According to her, the key factor influencing the demographic situation is, of course, migration.
At the same time, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Alexander Gladun says that Ukraine is facing a demographic crisis. He noted that at the beginning of 2037, according to expert forecasts, the population of Ukraine will be approximately 30.5 million people.
