I decided to begin by repeating what would have been the perfect stock trading year on a 365-day delay. From the new year, I bought the best-performing stock on the S&P on each day in 2021 on the closest corresponding day in 2022. Starting with £10 (rather than £1,000), I could aim to build up to a £140m fortune. Hardly Elon Musk, but not to be sniffed at.
Of course, last year’s market will not mirror this year’s exactly. But there are adages that suggest the markets repeat themselves at certain times of the year. Perhaps I can be the beneficiary of such a cyclical outlook. Also, isn’t the balance of probabilities such that a stock that did well last year would do the same this year? After all, it seems like we’ve been reliving Groundhog Day thanks to Covid since 2020, so doesn’t it make sense that the stock market would follow?
I started on Jan 4, the first trading day of 2022, buying £10.10 of Moderna stock. On the same day in 2021, it rose by 6.95pc off the back of positive vaccine news (Moderna would be the highest riser on 22 days in 2021). While the first day of 2022 wasn’t as impressive, I still closed out the day 2.3pc up.
It was validation: perhaps this trading lark wasn’t that hard after all. I had visions of buying my own fleet of space rockets. Already beginning to taste the champagne and caviar, I sold my interest in Moderna and ploughed it – profit and all – into the best performing stock on the next day in 2021, Occidental Petroleum.
Then the blip came.
Occidental, which rocketed more than 10pc on Jan 5 in 2021, caused me a 4.7pc loss. The £9.86 I had left went into Enphase the next day, which I spotted also looked shaky compared with 12 months prior. I lost another 2.8pc there.
After seven days of trading, my £10.10 had become £9.16. I’d gained money on just two of the seven days. It would have been three, but not closing out my position at the end of the trading day in New York (an irritatingly timed 9pm UK time) on day six cost me dearly, with after-hours trading turning a 0.9pc profit on Eli Lilly stock into a 4pc loss by the time I could actually sell it when markets opened in New York the following day.
There were bright spots. Occidental Petroleum turned from the bane of my life into a saviour, when my day two loss of 4.7pc was counteracted by a 4.6pc gain on day nine. Moderna, too, has proven to be a stalwart in the first month I’ve been trading, generating between 4pc and 5pc returns on the days I’ve traded it, with one exception, a small loss. But there have also been crushing lows: Netflix’s routing on Jan 21 after worse-than-expected performance numbers turned my £8.48 investment into £6.42 – a 24pc loss.
Unlike those who make new year’s resolutions and spend January getting fit and improving their lives, I ended the month in bad shape. My £10.10 had become £6.80 – a near 33pc loss – in a month. This was not the champagne wishes and caviar dreams I had envisaged.
Still, I had £6.80, and I ploughed on. So far in February I’ve made small daily gains; my account is back to about £7. That fortune by Dec 31 is still within my grasp. Right?