China has successfully launched the 23-ton Mengtian Science Module, the last large habitationunit of the Tiangong Orbital Station, into space. The Chinese analogue of the ISS was built on schedule and with a minimum of problems. The launch of the module and the imminent completion of the construction of the station is an important achievement of the Chinese space program, which is now second only to NASA and the US commercial space industry.

Building a station has one unfortunate side effect. To launch Tiangong’s core modules, including Monday’s flight, China used a modified version of the Long March 5B rocket. As with past similar launches , the massive payload carrier main stage will enter Earth’s atmosphere uncontrollably.

Typically during launch, the large first stage of a rocket provides most of the thrust during the first minutes of launch, and then, before reaching orbital speed, falls harmlessly back into the ocean. Then a smaller second stage takes over, which puts the rocket payload into orbit. However, the modified version of the Long March 5B does not have an upper stage – the rocket consists of a main stage with four overhead boosters.

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The boosters launch the rocket from the launch pad, then the main stage, with two YF-77 main engines, takes the space station modules into low Earth orbit. At this point, the main stage does not have the opportunity to restart its main engines and make a controlled re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. Typically, rocket boosters and other used space technology are disposed of by pointing to a remote point Nemo in the Pacific Ocean, but in this case this will not happen.

Not all space equipment needs to be disposed of in this way. Many transport modules are small enough to burn up in the atmosphere. But this does not apply to the main stage of the Long March 5B rocket, which weighs more than 20 metric tons. Large fragments of metal will inevitably reach the surface of the Earth.

In three previous launches of this rocket – in 2020, 2021 and 2022 – debris damaged villages in the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire, fell into the Indian Ocean and landed near villages in Borneo. Luckily, no one has been hurt by the fall of China’s massive space debris yet.

China refuses to acknowledge the problem. A commentator on the launch, broadcast by China Central Television, went as far as saying that the main stage would burn up completely in the Earth’s atmosphere – which cannot be true.

Based on past Long March 5B launches, it can be assumed that the return of the main stage to the Earth’s atmosphere will occur in about a week, give or take a couple of days.

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Source: Ars Technica