Markets crash as lockdowns emerge – but the stocks to buy will be different this time

“The work-from-home stock market surge will not return,” he said. “Most people never returned to offices in full, so there will not be a huge shift if governments direct people to work from home again.

“Everyone who paid for a big ticket item such as a Peloton bike or a new television has bought it already, so there will not be a new spike in demand.”

The run-up in shares last year, such as Zoom’s eight-fold rise between January and October 2020 and Peloton’s five-fold gain, was a result of investors chasing hot themes rather than making calculated long-term decisions, according to Mr Coombs.

“The market looked for companies that reflected the biggest talking point of the time: everyone was trapped at home. There was just too much money chasing too few ideas,” he said.

Brandon Ladoff, a fund manager at Polen Capital, said many of the lockdown winners were not unique businesses that could withstand competition. Investing in stocks to try to make money over short periods would always be a recipe for failure, he said.

“So-called Covid winners have experienced a tough period because their competitive advantage was not clear. Peloton is more convenient than going to a gym but physical gyms are not dead and people still buy memberships. Yes, Zoom built a very effective video experience but there has always been too much competition from Google and Microsoft, which offered video calls free to existing customers,” he added.

Mr Ladoff accepted that the pandemic had changed consumers’ behaviour but added: “We prefer to find companies that can survive any type of storm because they have unique offerings that will always be desirable, such as Alphabet, owner of Google. It was a big digital winner but its future is secure because billions of people trust it to give good answers to any question.

“Another holding is Microsoft: nothing needed to change in the world for the company to keep making money.”

However, some lockdown winners that have suffered huge share price falls this year could be in bargain territory and warrant investor attention.

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor said spending on food delivery services such as Deliveroo and Just Eat would grow irrespective of lockdowns. Kartik Kumar, manager of the £150m Artemis Alpha investment trust, which owns Just Eat, said: “It is currently making a small loss but because of a significant investment is growing its same-day delivery network. Other investors are unduly pessimistic so we have been buying shares as they have become cheaper.”

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