Hey.

You can forgive a lot, but I am intolerant of stupidity when people just do something for the sake of doing it. Often they do it in order to get medals and some kind of benefit, but at the same time they do not think about the ultimate goal. Ordinary people are no different from officials, the topics of discussion differ, but often the very approach to such discussions is the same. But what is there to dissemble, I myself am sinful and sometimes I argue from the standpoint of stupidity about some processes, not including the head, this is normal for any person. But you expect from the same officials that they will think many times before doing something, but in reality it turns out to be exactly the opposite, in the same way they are in a hurry to do something and immediately resolve all issues. In this issue of Biryulek we will touch upon a couple of initiatives of our officials, which give me a strong sense of absurdity. I am sure that we could have done normally and well, but we did it as usual. Why? The answer is simple – there is no feedback, you and I will just once again scold stupidity, make sure that we ourselves are smart, and continue to live as if nothing had happened.

Over the past five years, he has made great efforts, spent a lot of his personal time on public work, for example, so that the Yarovaya law in the form in which they wanted to pass did not pass. Thousands of comments, dozens of meetings with different officials and each time explaining how communication works, how operators work, why the proposed initiatives are harmful. A sort of urban madman who spends his time on incomprehensible matters. One of the officials even told me the following: “Eldar, what is your interest? Do you seriously think that you will change something? ”. A long time ago I determined for myself that I cannot fight for the correct arrangement of everything and everyone, but in telecom I will try to defend the right things, the way I understand them, regardless of who and what offers. To some extent, the position of an urban madman who does not accept the established rules of the game. But I am glad that every year there are more and more of us, such “crazy” people, ordinary people join us, who voice their opinion and say that it is wrong to do this and that. Not because their personal interests suffer, but because it is wrong. The water wears away the stone, and very slowly changes occur (pah-pah, perhaps self-deception, but the situation is changing, and more and more people are heard and cannot ignore their voices). The two topics of this issue are exactly about situations when it is necessary to eradicate stupidity and change the approach of officials to the market and people. But we will start with replies to comments about the market and the rise in prices for electronics. Go!

Content

1. The rise in the cost of electronics and “prices will be as always”
2. Roskomnadzor wants to control SIM cards and subscriber data
3. April 1 and pre-installation of Russian software on smartphones
4. Rostelecom and the secret room, ugh, services!

The rise in the cost of electronics and “prices will be as always”

This music will be eternal, as people become slaves of habit, and if something is noticed in the world around them, then they try not to rethink for each specific situation. On the other hand, it is hard to believe that what is happening in the electronics market today is becoming commonplace, since such a full-scale crisis has never happened in the entire history of the industry. I wrote an article about the shortage and how prices for electronics will change, and touched on a number of important points. If you missed it, then this text is worth reading.

The few typical comments I received as feedback deserve to be explored in detail. For convenience, I will even highlight them separately.

Only Samsung has the problem of rising prices, but Poco will still be cheap.

Every time I am afraid of such comments, as they show the lack of even the desire to think. I have no doubts that Poco will almost always be cheaper than Samsung, since the brand positioning was originally like that. This is a given, and it is impossible to argue with this.

But the assertion that prices are rising only for Samsung, and all the other Robin Hoods will give away their phones at a loss, unfortunately, has no basis at all. At the moment, there is a shortage of reagents, there are no 200 mm silicon wafers for the production of components, and no one is making predictions when the situation will start to improve. Previous forecasts said that in March this year everything will be as before, they were made in December 2020. This did not happen.

To characterize the level of problems, you can look at the supply of “old” components, for example, microcircuits that have been used for many years in various electronics. This is not the last peep of technology, as in many smartphones of the latest generation, but old, well-known chips. Paid and already placed orders at factories are postponed or canceled altogether, the cost increase is already two or even threefold. Prices are not guaranteed even for large, anchor buyers, for example, the same Samsung. For the first time, the market lives in a situation where you cannot predict the cost of the devices you create; it has turned into a mathematical model with varying degrees of probability. For example, an inexpensive 4G smartphone in a Chinese factory with 2/16 GB memory could be purchased in December for $ 34.5. Today it is no less than $ 39.5. In April, prices will go down to the level of 42.5-44.5 dollars. In Russian retail prices, such a smartphone costs today 5 490 rubles, at the current price it turns out 5 990 rubles, and the future cost will be 6 490 rubles at least (and I do not take this into account the cost of logistics, which has grown). You can even count the growth in value in your head, you will understand why the same Samsung set the first price growth bar at 20%. And this is a general market trend that will affect everyone without exception.

To clear my conscience, I discussed the situation with the largest manufacturers of Android smartphones, the answer was about the same – we set prices at the level of the month, we plan for growth for each delivery. We cannot compensate for the increase in the cost of logistics, as well as the cost of components.

Rave. No one will overpay in conditions where the people do not have a lot of money. Sales will fall and prices will fall too (spelling preserved).

I love this commentary, it is even chewed up in the original text, or rather, this is a reflection that cannot be destroyed in people’s heads. The logic here is peculiar – if there is no money, then sales will fall, prices will go down and again everyone will be happy. The flaw in this logic is obvious and lies on the surface, no manufacturer will become Robin Hood, few people care about market share if it only brings a loss. Therefore, we will face the fact that expensive models will leave the market in the same volume as they are presented today. Moreover, this is a global trend, and the President of Samsung at a meeting with shareholders shared his vision for this year, it is likely that the new model of the Note line, the flagship of the second half of the year, will not be released in 2021, but will appear a year later. In fact, he said the Note line would go into a two-year update cycle, and the S Pen support introduced in the S21 Ultra will remain an option in the very flagship of each line.

Do you know what the problem is for Samsung in launching multiple flagships in one year? In marketing costs that remain consistently high. The company is preparing for the market to change dramatically, demand for flagships of any manufacturer will be lower than in previous years. The amount of unsecured money that was printed in a pandemic in most countries of the world is guaranteed to lead to a surge in inflation, which will push the cost of any goods up, the same smartphones are no exception. Let’s add here the crisis with the production of components, which is not directly related to inflation, but the latter contributes to the rise in prices. The result will be a perfect storm, in which the rise in the cost of flagships will be noticeable. And exactly the same situation with all other manufacturers, for example, Apple is trying to reduce the cost of the next line of iPhone, engineers are coming up with ways to reduce the prices of these devices. In the current situation, we will face an increase in their value on the shelves by at least 10%, but by the time of the announcement, the price increase may reach 15%. It should be understood that the safety margin for these devices is much higher than that of any other manufacturer, since Apple sets their margin at 30-35%, depending on the model. And even in spite of this, the price increase looks tangible.

Why won’t sales drop? The answer is to be found in the fact that people cannot give up smartphones, we need them in everyday life. Another thing is that many will not be able to buy expensive models, as a result, they will focus on devices of a different price group. Demand will be redistributed to medium and low price segments. You can look at the Ukrainian market, which is experiencing a permanent crisis, and this is clearly seen on smartphone sales. The share of Apple and Android flagships is minimal against the background of Russia or Eastern Europe, but the share of Chinese manufacturers, including C brands, is noticeably higher. In units, the market remains stable, but the average price of the device is not growing as fast as in neighboring countries. And this is not from a good life, people simply cannot afford expensive models.

There will still be discounts, and they will allow you to buy the same Samsung cheaply.

The discrepancy in logic is obvious here, but this point needs to be highlighted. Discounts are part of the marketing strategy of many companies, including Samsung. And a stake is placed on them, since this allows you to get the same product at different prices, and at the same time.

The amount of discounts is usually a percentage of the value of the product, and not some kind of absolute value (the number is rounded up for the perception of the buyer). With an increase in the price of goods, the discount may even become larger! But there is one problem here, which is better illustrated with a specific example. Let’s take the discounts on the Galaxy A51, which this device received after the start of sales. It was possible to buy a smartphone not for 20 thousand rubles, but with a discount of 2 rubles, which amounted to a 000% discount. I do not take into account individual promotions that took place at the expense of retail, where the discount was higher (the volume of phones sold this way was rather insignificant). Now let’s take this year’s Galaxy A10 as an example, the initial cost is 52 thousand rubles. The 27% discount will be rounded, and you can buy it for 10 thousand rubles. There is little left to do – compare 24 and 18 thousand rubles, calculate the difference between these numbers. The word “cheap” is rather relative here, since we are seeing a rise in prices and it is impossible to escape from it.

I doubt that the incomes of the majority of the population of the country have increased, imagine an ideal situation, that they have not changed and have remained exactly the same. In this case, your costs for buying a new smartphone as a percentage of your income will increase. And “cheap” just doesn’t work here.

Finally, I would like to dwell on the sales of outgoing models, which give very favorable prices. For example, operator’s retail offers such devices at a very, very interesting price. Plus, you can use trade-in, which ultimately gives an even greater discount and everything turns out to be even more interesting.

The problem as eternal as the world is that this is a proposal for inventory leftovers, when you need to get rid of devices and clean the shelves. For retail, such old and at the same time relatively expensive models are a dead weight, they must be actively disposed of. This makes it possible to get working money, not to discount the current models, as some players have to do, for example, the same DNS. But you cannot say that this is a massive offer, when you can buy hundreds of devices in one city. There are several dozen, or even just a few, of such models for each city.

Roskomnadzor wants to control SIM cards and subscriber data

Somehow it so happened that it is considered good form to scold Roskomnadzor, and there is a reason. For example, on the portal of draft regulatory legal acts there is a draft government decree, from which it follows that Roskomnadzor will be able to receive the following information from operators on an ongoing basis:

• Full name, passport data (number and series, place of residence, date of birth);
• Agreement number, personal account number, phone numbers issued per person;
• Call and SMS lists linked to specific base stations (de facto geolocation of numbers);
• Log files indicating all services provided and equipment used by the subscriber;
• Information is transmitted to any subscribers, both individuals and corporate clients, with the exception of users of service numbers, intelligence officers, the military and the Ministry of Internal Affairs / Ministry of Emergency Situations;
• All information is automatically transferred to the Roskomnadzor database once a day by each operator.

In the text that describes the need for such a resolution, the following problem is given that there are many “gray” SIM-cards in Russia, which are often used by fraudsters, here is a good quote from the document: “they create obstacles in the conduct of operational-search actions, since they make it difficult to identify the subscriber : Mobile phones registered with false information are often used for illegal purposes. ”

Tired of explaining that there are no “gray” SIM cards. Officials need to first ask themselves how the operator’s market works, and only then try to regulate it somehow. Any SIM card in Russia is official, it is impossible to connect a left SIM card to the operator, which is not in its database. Another thing is that a SIM card can be issued using forged documents or without them at all. And this is what creates the main problems, since operators often do not have meticulous control over who uses their services. Unscrupulous dealers can plug in bundles of SIM-cards and then sell them with some kind of balance. The Roskomnadzor control initiative does not address this issue in any way.

Such a resolution looks like the creation of a corruption scheme in which a source of subscribers’ data appears, a list of their calls, and so on, which means that it will be possible to sell this data on the gray market. Unlike operators, Roskomnadzor does not have the means to protect such information, and their creation will cost a tidy sum of our taxes. But the most important thing is that the idea is not clear, why it is necessary in principle. The state already sees all this data, all mechanisms for viewing and clarifying them exist. Why give people data to another department? To create a point of vulnerability? To be able to say that the operators allow data leaks, and they will be on the side of Roskomnadzor (Caesar’s wife is beyond suspicion – will this logic be guided?).

But the most important thing is that this will also create an additional burden for operators, they will need to hire people who will do this, allocate significant capacities for this, and so on. In fact, this will lead to an increase in the cost of services for you and me. This approach is not close to me, since we do not solve any problem, but we get worsening conditions for everyone, without exception. What for?

In connection with this story, I cannot but recall the uniqueness of Russian officials, who consider it necessary to fix the cost of communication services, this is how they see their social role. Officially, we have a market, and each company is free to change the prices for its services, in any case, this is how it is declared. But in reality, the antimonopoly service does not allow price changes, as this may affect subscribers. The absurdity is that the FAS is called upon to ensure that the market works. In our history, the FAS independently breaks the market and de facto is engaged in state regulation of the cost of services.

For example, in January 2021, the rise in food prices in Russia was about 9% (it all depends on whose numbers you believe). But even if you look at the inflation rate, according to official statistics, in 2020 it amounted to 4.9%, a year earlier – 3%. Electricity is becoming more expensive, while the state is in no hurry to reduce its cost. But the prices for cellular communication must be stable! Don’t you think the situation itself is absurd? Russian capitalism is increasingly sliding into socialism with a managed economy, where companies are forced to follow the dictates of the regulator (even regulators, since there are many of them). And the danger of this approach is in one small thing: as a rule, those who are trying to steer a business do not understand anything about it. That is, these are people who should not be allowed to run the company on a cannon shot, but they immediately take on the task of managing entire markets. Amazing? Not that word.

I will not tire of repeating that I want to see the personal responsibility of officials for how they spend our taxes. So that there is no temptation to propose laws and projects that do not solve any specific problems.

April 1 and pre-installation of Russian software on smartphones

Starting from April 1 (the date makes me happy!), All smartphones and tablets sold in Russia must have Russian applications that have been approved for this by the government. The State Duma even adopted amendments to the Code of Administrative Offenses in order to fine those who do not comply with the requirements of the law. So, the fine for selling a smartphone or tablet without installed Russian programs will be from 30 to 50 thousand rubles for officials, from 50 to 200 thousand rubles for legal entities. Rospotrebnadzor should act as an arbitrator in disputes.

I wrote about this topic many times, but it will not be superfluous to repeat myself, since my portable absurdometer goes off scale when it comes to these initiatives. Initially, the law on preinstallation had two options for Russian software, both were lobbied by Yandex, since it is a beneficiary and saves money on preinstallation, gets on devices for free. In the first version, the manufacturer is obliged to put the software into the device’s memory, in fact, this is called a preset! By the second reading, the Ministry of Digital Science unexpectedly learned that there are budget smartphones in which there is very little memory, it is impossible to put more than a dozen programs in them even with a very ardent desire. Therefore, the second version of the law already included another method – you can install not programs, but application icons, and then when you click on the icon, the application is loaded. A compromise for budget devices, which, in theory, could be explained. For example, create a technical regulation, in which it is prescribed that icons can be installed for budget models with such and such a memory size. And periodically this regulation should be revised. But the creation of regulations is a certain responsibility that needs to be taken on. Our officials are fleeing from responsibility like from fire, so they did not do this (at the moment there are no regulations at all, this is very funny!).

By the third reading, another option for “setting” appeared in the law, a dialog box. When you first start the device, you are prompted to install applications, they are marked with checkmarks.

You can safely refuse to install these applications, the law does not oblige them to be installed. The third compromise was made for Apple, since the company refused to physically install applications, this is an additional cost. In the law that was passed, all three options for “installation” are equal, the manufacturer can independently choose any of them.

Since the law was urgently rewritten for new introductory notes, it contains a huge number of contradictions. For example, it was initially assumed that only physical installation of applications is possible, which means that it is possible to ensure a non-discriminatory location of Russian programs. This means that the browser from Yandex should be on the screen next to the browser from Google, that is, you will have two icons side by side.

Idiocy? Not that word! This approach is not close to the user, since no one needs two browsers at the same time and on the same screen (no, of course, there are dozens of people who will be happy with this solution, but the rest do not need it).

But you can provide the location of the icons, the search widget, when you have the installation of applications in memory. With the appearance of the dialog box, this became impossible, and most manufacturers took a bite on it.

The cost of a physical installation is always money in the factory. The more software you load into memory, the more time it takes to manufacture the device, it is delayed on the line. And this is a lot of money for the manufacturer. At the same time, the dialog box at the first launch does not cost anything for the vendor (the officials of the Ministry of Digital Industry did not know this then, they do not know it today). The compromise reached with Apple derailed the very text of the law and its logic. And then the absurdity began to overlap.

What does the dialog box with Russian applications on Android look like? When you first set up a smartphone after entering an account, connecting to the network, a window appears in which there are more than a dozen applications, they are marked with checkmarks. You can refuse to install them and proceed to the next configuration step. This is a dialog box that adds Russian applications to the device, and, by law, this is a possible way to “pre-install”. But physically there is nothing in the phone, no setup has been done. The manufacturer simply sends a list of programs when you turn it on for the first time, and nothing more.

Let’s remember about fines for retail stores, which can reach 200 thousand rubles this summer for each unit of goods (model). If we approach the issue formally, then if there are on average about 50 different models of smartphones on the shelf, you can write out a fine of 10 million rubles, since it will be almost impossible to find Russian software. You will need to configure your smartphone! Although the law speaks specifically about the pre-installation, and all subsequent compromises were layered on the text of the law, ruining it beyond recognition.

Producers tried in vain to get clarifications from the Ministry of Digital Science, sending letters to the ministry and receiving no answers. Exactly the same story of a lack of responsibility. Almost all manufacturers complained about officials to me in private conversations, they did not know what and how to do. On the other hand, manufacturers were pressured by Yandex, Mail.ru, which tried to explain that it was necessary to physically install applications, otherwise it would be a violation of the law. They threatened punishment and promised that they would get their way. But this is also funny, lobbying for the interests of Yandex, the officials put a bandwagon on the company, no pre-installation takes place, and the conversion of the dialog box into downloads will be minimal.

At the moment, almost all market players are dissatisfied with the law. Yandex and other companies did not receive the presets as they had hoped for. Retail received the sword of Damocles in the form of fines and additional problems, since no Russian software will physically be on the devices. The officials went into the “I’m in the house” state so as not to answer the market’s questions about how to implement the law they had passed.

Meanwhile, the cost of preinstalling applications for Yandex has skyrocketed. Previously, the company could install an application for 18-30 rubles, now the price is more than one hundred rubles. In the list of Russian software that must be preinstalled, there are enough programs from Yandex, and everyone will place them in a dialog box, no one will take money from Yandex for them. But want to physically get on a device with a different program? Be so kind as to compensate for all costs.

I didn’t stand with a candle and I cannot say with certainty, but I am sure that Yandex has regretted a hundred times that it had lobbied for the pre-installation of Russian applications. Since everything turned out much worse at the exit, the officials introduced an element of chaos and confusion. We will be raking the law on pre-installation for a couple of years, as at the moment it does not look working. Manufacturers will provide dialog boxes, and they will be limited to this. In Europe, such dialog boxes have been available for a number of applications for several years. European experience has shown that this approach does not work, no downloads occur. Why it will suddenly start working in Russia is not clear to me personally. I would be glad if you tell us about this law and its perception.

Rostelecom and the secret room, ugh, services!

As usual, a lot is learned from your letters, I suggest that you familiarize yourself with the letter of our reader, it does not need any comments.

Good afternoon.

I decided to share my observations of RT.

I connected to them on January 21, 2021 for a package offer phone + Internet. And on Friday (19.03.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX) interesting SMS came about that wonderful services were connected to me.

Today, on Saturday (20.03.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX) I decided to go to my personal account, check what is connected there, and there I found a whole scattering of these services, which I naturally not only did not connect, but the most amazing thing is that they are not connected to me according to the data from your personal account (which can be seen on the corresponding screenshots):

Charges for March:

Connected services in the “Telephony” section:

Connected services in the “Home Internet” section:

Among the list of services we are especially interested in antivirus for 149 rubles. The installer honestly warned that the antivirus was connected. He said that the first month is free, then money will be written off. If you do not need or do not like it, turn it off in your personal account.

I honestly went to the LC, saw that my options were not connected, checked, just in case, the options available for connection – there I can connect Kaspersky to 2 devices (i.e. it is not connected).

Accordingly, it turns out that a service was connected to me, which I myself cannot turn off in any way and which do not appear anywhere except in the payment information.

As a result of the “football” between operators for 31 minutes, I hope I managed to disconnect from the antivirus and other fun services.

—

Dmitry.

Have you ever had such adventures with this or other operators? Let us know in the comments!

PS There are a lot of plans for the week, I want to share one of the topics in advance. One of the Russian manufacturers of smartphones was suing an online edition, which filled itself with views on the “HYIP”, which it admitted, without hiding it at all. But I was attracted by exactly one phrase that the Russian company does nothing (like others like it) and sticks its name on Chinese smartphones, and then sells them in Russia at exorbitant prices. The myth is popular, even in some cases, it has a foundation. So let’s figure out what companies are doing, how important localization, warranty and other points are that “don’t cost anything”.

And now the traditional wish is more sun, walks, good mood. So that you do everything on time and good deeds argue. Have a great week.

Back to content >>>

Related Links

Share: 

we are in social networks:

Anything to add ?! Write … eldar@mobile-review.com