This week has seen some contrasting news for travellers. First the bad. The pressures of the pandemic have put paid to one well-known operator – on Wednesday, liquidators were appointed to close down Teletext Holidays. And a report from the international accounting firm, Mazars, also published this week, identified a sharp jump in insolvencies in tour operators and travel agents over the last year – the number of failures was up 17 per cent, from 59 to 69. Rebecca Dacre, a Partner at Mazars gave a distinctly negative summary of the situation. “The insolvencies we’ve seen so far are likely to be the tip of the iceberg. In many cases, furlough support has been the only thing keeping travel businesses going. Now these firms will have to pay their whole wage bill and may find creditors knocking at the door.”
That may be on the pessimistic side, but there is no doubt that there will be more turbulence to come and it’s interesting to compare that analysis with what seems to be happening with flights and airfares at the moment. Last month, The Anker Report and website (airserviceone.com) – which analyse and monitor new aviation services – found that 67 new routes had opened out of European airports between September 11 and October 8. Of the 28 airlines involved, Wizz Air was by far the most aggressive, offering 24 new destinations across the continent, including services from Luton to Rome and Naples.
But that pales into insignificance compared with Anker’s analysis of Ryanair’s latest moves which it published this week. This revealed that the airline was planning more than 250 new European routes over the coming winter, of which 33 are to and from the UK, including Bristol to Madrid and Barcelona, Birmingham to Budapest, and also Birmingham to Turin and Bergamo – both good gateways for skiers heading to Italian resorts.
What does this mean for fares? As a spot check, I did some flight searches for the last weekend in November (travelling from Thursday to Sunday) and I found some extraordinarily low prices. Returns from London to Venice (using Treviso Airport) cost from £28 with Ryanair, and £64 straight into the more convenient Marco Polo Airport, with EasyJet. For the same dates, Wizz Air was offering £35 returns from Luton to Rome and the same fare from Manchester. For Barcelona, Ryanair was cheapest again at £28 departing from Stansted, and Vueling came into the mix at £78 out of Gatwick. Also that weekend, you can get returns to Vienna from £104 (from Stansted with Ryanair). And flights to Amsterdam were from £84 from Stansted, or £74 from Manchester, both with EasyJet.
Of course, this is hardly peak season – prices always dip at this time of year – and these are bare bones fares. If you want to choose your seat, or travel with luggage for example, you’ll end up paying rather more. But even so, these are exceptionally low prices and they are a clear sign that the no-frills airlines – especially Ryanair and Wizz Air – are planning to rely on the old model of aggressive expansion and low pricing.
But how long will these fares sustain and how many airlines can survive the cut-throat competition? Few flights will make a profit at these levels, and fares are sure to go up next spring (though you can currently still get a return to Venice over Easter, for example, for £76 with EasyJet, so early bookers can still find bargains). But exactly when and by how much will depend partly on how many of us are travelling again by then and whether enough airlines survive to keep things competitive.
The best strategy for the consumer is to grab the bargains while you can while at the same time making sure you protect your holiday. Book with an Atol-bonded operator (caa.co.uk/atol-protection), or, if you make arrangements independently, make sure your tickets are flexible and you can cancel accommodation without penalty. And always pay with a credit card so you are covered against insolvency in case the worst does happen and your airline goes out of business.
