After all, he has nothing to brag about. And at the victory parade, which, although it will take place without guests, the Russians still need to talk about something. In particular, to explain why the full-scale war against Ukraine has not ended for the third month already.

First, according to British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, Putin may call a general mobilization in Russia to collect more cannon fodder.

Secondly, according to the British edition of The Times, Russia is preparing an attack on Moldova from Transnistria, the independence of which Putin can recognize according to the “Donbass scenario.” According to Ukrainian intelligence, a large circulation of the newspaper “Pridnestrovie” for May 2 was printed on the territory of the “PMR”, where the central material is “Official appeal of the inhabitants of the PMR to Russian President Putin” to introduce Russian troops

Third, the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons also remains on the table. And not only against Ukraine. On Sunday, on Russian channels, the well-known propagandist Kiselev told how they would destroy Great Britain with nuclear weapons.

TSN . ua continues to analyze the state of affairs at the front. Together with Mikhail Samus, Deputy Director of the Center for the Army, Conversion and Disarmament for International Affairs, we figured out what Putin was preparing for May 9, why Gerasimov came to Izyum, and when the Armed Forces of Ukraine would launch a counteroffensive.

What will happen on May 9th?

Of course, at the May 9 parade on Red Square in Moscow, Putin boasts of “trophy” Mariupol, which the Russians have no complete control over, and Kherson, where they plan to hold a “referendum” on the creation of KhNR.

Although, according to Mikhail Samus, the fact that the Russians are exporting agricultural equipment from there proves that they are preparing to leave this region, which may very soon be fired by Ukrainian troops.

Firstly, in this way the Kremlin continues its course of destroying the Ukrainian economy, provoking food problems in the fall, not only in Ukraine, but globally in the world, in order to accuse the collective West and Ukraine of world hunger.

Secondly, after the long-range and high-precision American artillery arrives at the front, there will be real prospects for liberating Kherson and the region.

“The problem was that with the weapons and artillery that the West gave us, the same Javelins, we can defend ourselves very effectively, but not very offensively. To do this, we need to hit command posts, destroy control systems, rear, supplies. we need more powerful, long-range and high-precision artillery. I think that the artillery that the Americans are handing over to us will begin to be used within a week. Others will gradually arrive, “explains Mikhail Samus.

According to him, the specific direction of counter-offensive operations will depend on which regions will be the first. The front is like the only organism from Kharkov to Odessa. And this is a purely military science – where is it better to strike in order to unbalance the enemy’s front, and then strike in another place, for example, to liberate Kherson. And this is the direction to the Crimea and Melitopol. If we make an offensive in this direction, then, of course, activities can be carried out from Zaporozhye to the south, to Melitopol. And all this will finally allow us to talk about the departure of Mariupol.

Mysterious visit of Gerasimov

Therefore, the expert does not predict anything special for May 9. Lavrov recently stated that they will not adjust any progress to that date. Indeed, because there is nothing to customize. Perhaps that is why Putin ordered the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov to personally go to the Donbass to see what is happening there, why the map does not move.

According to The New York Times, Gerasimov was indeed in Izyum, trying to change the course of the Russian offensive in the failing east. Ukraine recognized this visit and struck at one of the positions where Gerasimov was located, but he seemed to have already left there. Others, including Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of the OPU, report that the UAF hit exactly where Gerasimov was, killing at least 200 Russian soldiers, including 30 senior officers, from a major to a colonel.

According to Mikhail Samus, the fact that everything is bad in their Donbass is for sure. The Russians did not choose a long war for themselves, but tried to realize everything in a few days – this is unambiguous. It’s been a month since they’ve been trying to launch a large-scale offensive there, and there’s nothing on the map. The Russians cannot realize their tasks. Therefore, Putin could tell Gerasimov to go in person to see what is happening there, because nothing is working out.

“On February 24, they thought that somewhere in a week, maximum before March 8, they would already be celebrating. But it didn’t work out solely because Ukraine began to defend itself, the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed simply excellent qualities, responded, destroyed the northern group. Now the same thing is starting most in the east “” Why did Gerasimov come there? On Sunday, May 1, there were a lot of planes in Belgorod, which just provide flights for military leaders of this level. He came to understand why the map does not move, “says Mikhail Samus.

Of course, before May 9, the Russians will try to achieve any success in the Donbas as much as possible. There is still time, albeit a little. That is, they will throw even more reinforcements and reserves. Various information is already appearing that Russia seems to be taking out the Wagnerites and Syrian mercenaries from Libya. But they won’t succeed.

Therefore, Putin’s victory parade will be as empty as possible. Yes, there will be a show, lots of Z’s, tanks. That is, the Russians will be shown as much as possible that all these rumors that Russia is suffering heavy losses do not come true, because look at the equipment moving, people walking, soldiers smiling. And the victories will not be announced.

“The only option left was that Putin could announce mobilization. But it seems to me that this will be done somehow in a veiled way. That is, he will say that all of NATO is fighting against them, so everyone needs to unite and start thinking about how to protect the memory of grandfathers. But He will not officially announce mobilization, but they will call to support the RF Armed Forces by creating a volunteer movement to support the front,” Mikhail Samus believes.

Offensive from Transnistria

Last week, TSN.ua already wrote that Russia was deliberately inciting the situation in Transnistria in order to open another front against Ukraine in the Odessa region after the landing failed due to the destruction of the cruiser Moskva in the southern direction.

Is there a risk that Putin will continue to undermine the situation in the PMR in order to force Ukraine to transfer part of its troops from the east to the south? According to Mikhail Samus, Pridnestrovie was constantly in the Kremlin’s cage. When the Russians planned any operations in the south, in particular, in Odessa, they always planned an operation in Transnistria as well.

One of the goals is to create a land corridor from Transnistria to occupied Crimea to turn Transnistria from an enclave into a territory where enough troops and new equipment could be deployed to threaten Ukraine, Romania and NATO countries, as well as from Kaliningrad. .

“In the event of any successful advance of Russia on the southern front, Pridnestrovie will immediately be used. But Putin’s problem is that there are no successes on the southern front. If they had made their way to Odessa in the first phase, a certain group of troops would immediately go to Pridnestrovie and create this land corridor and would provide it in the same way as they did through Mariupol. Therefore, Transnistria remains one of the potential places where Russia could conduct its aggressive actions and operations,” the expert explains.

The involvement of the Transnistrian factor will depend only on the situation at the front. Mihail Samus does not rule out that the Russians may commit some kind of provocation in order to create conditions when Moldova will have problems. They may try to provoke an offensive by the Transnistrian troops, accusing Chisinau that “Nazis” are also sitting there.

“Now nothing can be ruled out. But the fact that they will try to provoke the situation in order to use the Russian Transnistrian troops to create a threat to the Ukrainian troops defending the southern region is 100%. But so far there are no successes on the southern front, they simply cannot physically involve Transnistria – adds Mikhail Samus.

Attack on Krivoy Rog

A week before May 9, the enemy began to accumulate forces for an offensive from Kherson to the Nikolaev region and Krivoy Rog. Also, according to British intelligence, there are risks of the Russians attacking Zaporozhye. Of course, the Russians may have such plans as the capture of Kyiv and Odessa, but they do not have the strength to do so.

Mikhail Samus says that for such an operation two groups of at least 500 thousand each are needed. If you look at the map, Krivoy Rog is the point that you need to pass in order to go to the Dnieper from the south.

These are two counter operations in the east in the JFO zone with access to the Dnieper: in the south, one arrow goes to Odessa and Transnistria, and the other – just to Krivoy Rog and the Dnieper. Then they meet in the Dnieper and ensure the de facto occupation of half of Ukraine. they do not have the strength to carry out such an operation. Perhaps they will try to break through in the direction of Krivoy Rog. But it will be somewhere the same as in the Chernihiv region, when the Ukrainian troops simply cut and cleaned out the Russian long tentacles,” the expert predicts.

Mikhail Samus explains that it is impossible to break through with such tentacles when you do not have enough strength. You can’t provide an adequate concentration of troops, nor logistics, nor supplies. Therefore, the result is what happened in the Chernihiv region. The same will happen in the Krivoy Rog direction if they try to fulfill the tasks of the Russian high command. According to the expert, it seems that there are people who are not studying there. Perhaps it is Putin who draws these arrows, who is reported that he seems to have a lot of troops.

“I think that in a month the Ukrainian army will become even better, because heavy weapons will be supplied, and in three months it will be completely different thanks to Lend-Lease. That is, three months is the period when the Ukrainian army will be able to carry out another level of operations that the Russian army simply will not be able to cope with, and here the question arises of how Russia will behave after that, they have several options, one of them is a nuclear strike, but in two months Putin’s positions are shaking and he will not be able to so easily. force their entourage to use nuclear weapons. Therefore, they may try to move on to some new negotiations. I think they will try to stay in the territories until February 24. But Ukraine will no longer agree to this,” Mykhailo Samus sums up .