For the first time in its 100-year history, the pro-United Ireland party Sinn Fein has taken first place in the elections in Northern Ireland and is getting a chance to appoint a first minister, but for this it will have to negotiate with loyalists loyal to the British crown.

Sinn Fein won 27 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Northern Ireland, becoming the largest faction in it. Only two out of 90 constituencies have not been counted.

The ultimate goal of Sinn Féin, whose leader Michelle O’Neill has already called the elections a historic day, is a referendum on the secession of Northern Ireland from the UK and unification with the Republic of Ireland.

During the years of conflict in Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin was closely associated with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (Provisional IRA).

Both organizations originate from the left-wing nationalist Sinn Féin party, founded in 1905 by Arthur Griffith. Translated from the Irish Gaelic Sinn Féin means “ourselves”.

Sinn Fein was called the political wing of the IRA. One of the leaders of the party, Martin McGuinness, played an important role in the combat organization of the IRA and, as it became known later, personally participated in the preparation of at least one terrorist attack.

After the peaceful settlement of the conflict, McGuinness entered politics and was Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 2007-2017. During a visit to Belfast in 2012, Queen Elizabeth II shook hands with him in what many observers described as a historic moment.

However, Sinn Féin is now led by politicians who have nothing to do with the party’s rebel past – Michelle O’Neill leads it in Northern Ireland, and the head of the party is Mary Lou MacDonald, leader of the opposition in the Republic of Ireland.

In 2019, Sinn Féin called for a referendum on unification with the Republic of Ireland if Britain left the EU.

Sinn Féin wins 27 assembly seats, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 24 seats, Alliance Party 17 seats, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 9 seats, Social Democratic Labor Party (SDLP) 7 places.

The main rival of “Sinn Fein” – loyalists from the Democratic Unionist Party – represent the interests of the Protestant population of the province.

They warned that if they won, the Nationalists would organize a referendum on secession from the United Kingdom and unification with the Republic of Ireland.

But this time, Sinn Fein built its election campaign on the economic agenda, without focusing the attention of voters on ethno-religious disputes.

Among the main campaign topics of the party were rising prices against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, as well as delays in the supply of British products to the region due to the creation of a customs border in the Irish Sea as a result of Brexit.

While Michelle O’Neill has stated that her party’s ultimate goal is for Northern Ireland to leave the UK and unite with the Republic of Ireland, Sinn Féin’s victory does not mean a referendum is inevitable.

The fact is that the Northern Ireland Act 1998, adopted after the signing of the Good Friday Peace Agreement, states that Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom and will not cease to be so without the consent of the majority of the inhabitants of Northern Ireland.

It also states that the British government’s Secretary of State for Northern Ireland can call for a referendum only if opinion polls show it is likely that the majority of the people want Irish reunification.

However, the latest polls show that this is still not the case: in the April poll, only a third of the people of Northern Ireland supported the idea of a united Ireland.

At the same time, Sinn Fein has a chance to appoint its own prime minister, who could become the first nationalist leader in Northern Ireland.

But under Northern Ireland’s exclusive power-sharing agreement, Catholics and Protestants should govern the region together.

That is why the positions of the prime minister and his deputy are equal in the country, although their distribution is symbolically important.

The Democratic Unionist Party has already announced that if Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill becomes prime minister, it will not propose any candidates for vice premier until the Northern Ireland protocol is resolved.

The document was signed as a result of Brexit. It was designed to prevent the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland and to preserve the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended three decades of bloody clashes.

The Protocol eliminates the need to introduce customs controls for goods coming from Northern Ireland (part of the United Kingdom) to the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU).

But at the same time, it obliges the capital of Northern Ireland, Belfast, to follow the norms of the single European market, that is, to carry out inspections of goods coming from the UK, that is, from England, Scotland and Wales.

Sinn Fein supports the protocol on Northern Ireland, while the Democratic Unionist Party opposes it.

That is why the outcome of these elections is of great importance in resolving the issue of the trade border with the UK.

Elected members of the assembly will have until the end of 2024 to vote for the continuation of the implementation of those parts of the protocol that create the internal trade border of the United Kingdom.

The results of the vote will be determined by a simple majority of the voting members of the assembly in which Sinn Féin has won the most seats.