In South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia, the opposition candidate, the leader of the Nykhas party, Alan Gagloev, won the presidential election. According to the results of the second round of voting, he was ahead of the incumbent President Anatoly Bibilov, who was considered the favorite of the Kremlin and advocated holding a referendum on the accession of South Ossetia to Russia.

The second round of presidential elections, the legitimacy of which is not recognized by Georgia and most countries of the world, was held in the self-proclaimed republic last Sunday. The Central Election Commission of the region announced the first results of the voting on the same day, approximately three hours after the closing of polling stations. According to data published on Monday, after processing 97% of the ballots, 54% voted for 41-year-old opposition leader and former KGB officer Alan Gagloev, and 43% for Bibilov.

Moscow recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia after the Russian-Georgian war in August 2008. There is a Russian military base in South Ossetia and the region is heavily dependent on Russian financial assistance. For example, last year it amounted to almost 83% of the republic’s budget revenues.

Georgia, which considers Abkhazia and South Ossetia its territory, does not recognize the elections. Even during the first round, the Georgian Foreign Ministry condemned the voting, calling it another illegal act of Russia against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. The department made a similar statement after the second round.

Many predicted victory for the opposition candidate after the first round on April 10, in which Gagloev was ahead of the incumbent president. At the same time, the remaining three candidates who dropped out of the electoral race declared their support for Gagloev, thereby increasing his chances of winning.

According to analysts, initially Moscow supported Bibilov, but after the first round, he no longer had such unequivocal support.

“Gagloev’s victory in the first round was so stunning and convincing that Moscow fell silent. It was definitely important for Russia that there was no hype,” says Paata Zakareishvili, a conflictologist and professor at the Grigol Robakidze University.

According to him, in a situation where Bibilov initially cleared the political field, making it impossible for candidates who could become serious competitors for him to register, the victory of the little-known Gagloev in the first round was quite unexpected.

According to the analyst, Gagloev’s success in the elections is more likely due to the fact that he did not have a negative rating, which is no less important for a politician than a positive rating.

The election came amid mixed reactions to sending South Ossetians to war in Ukraine on Russia’s side. At least seven natives of South Ossetia have already died there. At the end of March, it was reported about the return of about 300 soldiers to the republic from the Russian military base located there.

Some local analysts believe that public dissatisfaction with sending military personnel to Ukraine had a negative impact on Bibilov’s rating, who, although he was not directly involved in sending them, supported their participation in hostilities.

In early May, the Mediazona publication (included by the Russian Ministry of Justice in the register of media-“foreign agents”) published excerpts from Bibilov’s meeting with returning soldiers, where they talk about the unbearable conditions in which they found themselves. Bibilov during the meeting expresses confidence that “there will be victory, and the parade in Kyiv will be one hundred percent.”

During this meeting, Bibilov was also reminded of the resonant death in August 2020 of a resident of Tskhinvali, Inal Dzhabiev, after which protests were held in the republic. According to experts, this situation has become one of the key factors that influenced the outcome of the elections and dissatisfaction in society with Bibilov.

Moscow is already talking about counting on continuity in relations with South Ossetia. The first deputy head of the international committee of the Federation Council, Vladimir Dzhabarov, believes that a change in leadership will not change these relations.

“I think that the change of leadership will not affect the relations between South Ossetia and Moscow. Both candidates are pro-Russian,” he said.

Both Georgian and Russian analysts agree that there are no surprises to be expected from the new president in relations with Moscow.

According to Paat Zakareishvili, Gagloev will probably be even more accommodating in relations with Moscow than his predecessor, who made pro-Russian, but sometimes arbitrary decisions.

“Gagloev is not as popular as Bibilov was in his time. He is not as charismatic. He will need support,” the expert says. “For now, his only advantage is his hatred of Bibilov. and fulfill all directives from Moscow. If he fulfills these two conditions, he will not lose trust in society.”

Both contenders for the presidency make no secret of their loyalty to Moscow. Anatoly Bibilov, on the eve of the elections, even announced the initiative to hold a referendum on the entry of South Ossetia into Russia.

The idea of holding a referendum provoked a restrained reaction from Moscow. In South Ossetia, Bibilov’s rivals called it another pre-election PR of the incumbent president, who had previously focused on the popular idea of joining Russia in the self-proclaimed republic.

Alan Gagloev said that there were no fundamental disagreements on the topic of the referendum, but it should take place when not only South Ossetia, but also Russia is ready for it.

“The reunification of a divided people within Russia is too important a topic to make it the subject of pre-election manipulation of people’s minds. I said during the first round of debates and I repeat now that the referendum will be held when not only South Ossetia, but this step will be timely for the Russian Federation and will not put the leadership of our strategic partner in an ambiguous position,” Gagloev said .

Bibilov’s initiative was designed more for an internal audience without much prospect of achieving a real result, some analysts agree.

Conflictologist Georgy Kanashvili, in an interview with the BBC, noted that all Bibilov’s previous victories were based on the theme of joining Russia. In this direction, Bibilov did not achieve any concrete results, while de facto South Ossetia was already annexed by Russia, but de jure it did not become part of Russia, the analyst noted.

The analyst doubts that Russia will go for the annexation of South Ossetia, noting that this would be illogical against the backdrop of the position of the Georgian authorities in the war with Ukraine and statements in Moscow that Georgia’s “balanced” reaction to sanctions against Russia will not go unnoticed .

Russia needs South Ossetia for manipulation and pressure on Tbilisi, and for this, not annexed, but simply recognized as independent South Ossetia is much more profitable for Moscow, says Kanashvili. But this, in his opinion, does not mean that Moscow is against holding a referendum in South Ossetia.

The date of the promised referendum has not been announced, but the outgoing president assures that such a vote will take place. All the documents necessary for this have been prepared, he says.