After the collapse of the first months, the real estate market in Ukraine reopened. Experts analyze what will happen to sales, prices and new buildings . And also whether there will be a boom in demand for housing in western Ukraine.

In the first months of the war, the real estate and housing market virtually stopped. The Ministry of Justice immediately closed access to the state register of real estate rights to prevent interference with the system and illegal seizure of housing.

Access to the system was restored in just two months. Now an apartment in Ukraine can be bought or sold, but with certain restrictions.

For example, such operations cannot be carried out by power of attorney, as well as in regions where active hostilities or occupation continue. Purchase and sale can be carried out only at certain notaries and only in the same region where the housing is located.

Experts say that there is interest in real estate in Ukraine, and in some regions the attendance of profile sites has even reached pre-war levels, but there is no rapid surge in sales.

There are difficult times ahead for the market, especially for the primary.

The profile portal LUN.ua reported in mid-April that people have become interested in real estate offers again.

According to them, after the failure at the beginning of the war in the central and western regions, traffic to the site with proposals for investment in housing was already 30-50% of pre-war.

And in Transcarpathia, interest in real estate investments has almost reached peacetime – 96% of pre-war figures.

“Sales are taking place after the start of the war. Their volumes should not be compared with the pre-war ones, they are rather a signal of a positive trend and active recovery of the market,” said Denis Sudilkovsky, LUN’s marketing director.

“Housing investment decisions directly depend on psychological confidence in one’s own future, and this is directly related to the success of the Armed Forces,” he added.

At the same time, search queries are not equal to investment activity, says Olga Solovey, co-founder of the Ukrainian Real Estate Club and the Housing for IDPs project.

It is more about monitoring opportunities than concrete actions, she explains.

In the western regions of Ukraine, where there was no active hostilities and significant destruction, there is interest in real estate. But it is primarily about renting to people who left their homes because of the war, not about buying.

According to Mayor Andriy Sadovy, the population of Lviv alone has grown by at least 200,000 people. The total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country has exceeded 8 million.

“Among them are people who are considering buying a home in the new region, but are able to solve several issues – buy a home, start a new life, start a new business or get a job – there are not many,” said Hryhoriy Pererva. CEO of Eurorating.

Most hope to spend a period of active hostilities in quieter regions and return, and do not need to buy housing.

But increased interest in buying a home for rent – is possible, says the expert.

“When the cost of rent increases, the price of the secondary and primary markets starts to rise in a few months, people see that you can earn money on rent, so you have to invest in apartments for sale,” says Pererva.

However, Andriy Borysov, the head of the Lviv Association of Real Estate Professionals, advises to be careful with such investments.

“If you take it so cynically, without any emotions – if you now buy an expensive finished apartment with renovation, decoration and rent it expensive for another couple of months, then in six months, perhaps, such a price will not be and this investment is not justified,” – explains he.

According to him, the increase in rental prices by a third – not so much earnings as a response to inflation and general price increases, and rapid growth, for example, twice, is already “more like looting.”

“One way or another, the market will level it all out, and the outbreak will not last long, there will not be such an influx of migrants,” Borisov said.

After all, according to OLX, prices for apartments on the secondary market have not changed much. For example, apartments in Kyiv became slightly cheaper, but in the range of 5-8% compared to pre-war prices, in Lviv they became about the same price.

The situation in the primary real estate market is much more complicated.

“Currently, few people want to risk investing in real estate during the war. Potential investors are, in particular, citizens who went abroad and took their money, and are now waiting for the situation to stabilize,” said Anna Laevskaya, commercial director of Intergal-Bud. And most immigrants who have gone to the West, away from the fighting, simply do not have the money. ”

After the start of the war, housing construction virtually came to a standstill. And not only because of the war, uncertainty and the risk of destruction, says Olga Solovey, co-founder of the “Ukrainian Real Estate Club”

Construction machinery and personnel were massively involved in the construction of checkpoints and fortifications. Large volumes of construction materials were sent there.

Already in April, some developers in Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Zaporizhia and Dnipro announced the continuation of construction work. But the number of renewed projects, as of mid-May, is still far from 50% of the pre-war market, says Nightingale.

According to the LUN, as of mid-May, 80-90% of construction resumed in areas far from hostilities – Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Vinnytsia and Volyn.

“This week we received good news from Bucha, where the first developer returned to work!” – says Sudilkovsky.

The rest are lower. In particular, 17% of constructions were restored in the capital, 20% in Kyiv oblast, 11% in Chernihiv and Zaporizhia oblasts, 31% in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, and only 1% in Kharkiv oblast.

Sales, according to LUN as of May 11, resumed in 40% of residential complexes in the country. The highest rates – over 90% – in Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Cherkasy regions. In Odessa, sales opened 56% of housing, in Kiev and Kiev region – only 14%.

Against the background of a difficult situation and uncertainty, prices have risen. And the farther from the war – the more. In the Zakarpattia region, where virtually all construction continues, the minimum price per meter has risen by 12% in dollars. At the same time, the Kyiv region, where only 17% of construction was restored, the minimum price increased by only + 3%, says Sudilkovsky.

Prices for new buildings in the Odessa region increased by an average of 3% per meter in foreign currency, in the Lviv region – by 8%, says Denis Sudilkovsky.

“The change in prices, in addition to consumer sentiment, is influenced by the weakening of the hryvnia against the dollar, the pace of recovery in the region and how far the region is away from hostilities,” he said.

In addition, risks have increased, the cost of construction materials has increased, and logistics have become more complicated.

All this makes the primary market less attractive to potential investors. Especially considering that most apartments are rented out by developers without repair.

“Given the need of migrants not just in square meters, but in ready-to-settle housing, the primary real estate market loses to the” secondary “, which has reoriented to rent,” – explains Nightingale.

For example, in Transcarpathia, even ready-made apartments without repair are practically not bought, says Yuri Mordovanets, an expert on new buildings in Uzhgorod. Apartments with turnkey repairs from the developer are in demand.

“To sell the finished objects, developers began to make turnkey repairs and sell them almost without earnings on repairs,” – he says.

In addition, developers have to meet the needs of investors, most large companies are introducing a grace period, when you can not make payments without sanctions for apartments purchased for payment.

The general situation makes people nervous who had invested in housing before the war. After all, the longer the fighting lasts, the stronger the crisis in the market will be, experts predict.

“Some people will lose their investments – either the housing is completely destroyed, or the construction company has stopped its activities,” says Hryhoriy Pererva. “Unfortunately, such situations will not be isolated.

Experts are convinced that it is very difficult to predict how the market situation will develop further. It depends on how long the active hostilities will last, on what borders Ukraine will end the war and what destructions it will still suffer.

“If funding is provided, the market recovery will be quite fast. Six months to a year from the end of hostilities, as a very large number of citizens need to rebuild their homes,” said Anna Laevskaya.

The expert emphasizes that she hopes for state programs and donor funds of international organizations and governments, and not for the savings of Ukrainians themselves, who have suffered greatly from the war.

“Many have lost their sources of income, business, industrial capacity. Accordingly, the effective demand for real estate until the recovery of the economy and the well-being of citizens will be much lower than in pre-war times,” – she explains.

The state has already started collecting information about the war-torn housing through the “Action” and promises to either pay compensation or provide housing in new buildings, the construction of which will be financed.

Apartments in unfinished houses are also subject to compensation, but only if it is a legal construction and capital structures have already been built in the house.

“There will be a chance and prospect, if a corresponding state order is formed, this option may work,” says Hryhoriy Pererva. funds will be allocated “.

If the country’s reconstruction program is properly implemented, it will not only be able to provide people with housing, but also give a boost to the post-war economy – create jobs, bring investment, new technologies, etc., says Olga Solovey.

New housing must meet new challenges – it must be inexpensive, but safe and reliable. New requirements for new buildings are being announced more and more often – the obligatory arrangement of bomb shelters and shelters.

Non-residential premises converted into long-term housing projects could be a compromise, say activists for the Housing for IDPs project. Proposals for two pilot projects in Khmelnytsky region have already been submitted to the authorities.

Well-known Ukrainian architect Slava Balbek and balbek.bureau also presented their vision of the project of temporary housing for IDPs “Re: Ukraine”.

But even under an optimistic scenario, the recovery will be long, says Andriy Borisov.

“Returning to the pre-war level can already be considered an achievement,” he concludes.

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