Analysts at the Swiss financial conglomerate Credit Suisse have released a detailed report on the state of the Asian semiconductor market. Since one of the main consumers of chips is the smartphone market, the document pays sufficient attention to it. According to Credit Suisse, overall global smartphone sales will grow: up from 1.28 billion in 2020 and 1.36 billion in 2021, they expect sales of 1.42 billion smartphones in 2022 and 1.49 billion in 2022. 2023. Sales will grow not at the expense of China – in the largest market, sales, on the contrary, will fall somewhat this year and will not be able to fully recover next. Which countries will become drivers of growth in sales of smartphones, Credit Suisse does not specify.

Also, Credit Suisse analysts believe that the average price of smartphones will no longer grow. In 2021, it amounted to $388.9 against $343.8 in 2020, but will remain unchanged: $389 this year and $388.1 next. At the same time, the share of 5G solutions in the sales market structure will grow rapidly, and in 2023 900 million smartphones with the latest generation of cellular communications will be sold. As for manufacturers, analysts expect the fastest growth from Samsung (from 272.1 million last year to 328.9 million next year), Xiaomi (from 191 million to 245.7 million) and Transsion (from 82.4 million to 105.6 million). But OPPO, taking into account all its sub-brands and Vivo, which have become the main beneficiaries of the fall of Huawei, will not be able to grow further: last year they sold 339.7 million smartphones together against 262.3 million a year earlier, but by 2023 they will only reach 344 .3 million. Even for Lenovo and Apple, analysts predict faster growth.

Credit Suisse also provided separate statistics for 5G smartphones and 3G/4G smartphones. In the first category, Apple will remain the undisputed leader, because almost all of its sales are in the 5G segment. But Android manufacturers, without exception, will increase sales of such devices: even Huawei + Honor, whose combined sales are expected to decline by Credit Suisse, will be able to increase shipments of 5G smartphones. But especially impressive growth is expected to catch up with Lenovo and ZTE: from 6.1 and 1.4 million last year to 17.3 million and 3.4 million this year, respectively.

But sales of smartphones without 5G will fall for almost everyone – a slight increase in this segment is expected only from Samsung and Transsion. Apple and Huawei + Honor will most actively refuse sales of smartphones without 5G: last year they already reduced the supply of such devices by three times, and in 2022 the decline will only continue.

And a couple of charts at the end. The first shows that the increase in the average price of smartphones last year was mainly due to 5G devices, the average cost of which jumped from $500 to $700. The main reason for this growth, obviously, was the emergence of the iPhone with 5G. Curiously, smartphones that do not even support 4G have begun to rise in price, most likely due to general inflation in the world. And the second shows a graph of sales of 3G/4G/5G smartphones over the past ten years. It shows that 4G devices are still in great demand in China (~7 million devices per month), although 5G models have been available for more than two years. 8 years ago, when 4G was spreading in China, the situation was different: two years after the start of sales of 4G devices, no one was buying 3G models.

© Ilya Nerybov. mobile phone

Sourced from Credit Suisse | IF/News