Where omicron risks hitting house prices – even if Covid variant is mild

The threat of the variant 

Martin Elliott, of Hunters estate agents in Manchester, said the rise of the new variant and the threat of increased travel restrictions could wipe out the flow of international money. “Anything between the University of Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan, and anything new-build, would suffer greatly.”

In prime central London, where international buyers typically account for half of all purchases, the blow would hit hard.

A widespread return to working from home would also undo the rising demand for city centre apartments from buyers and renters alike. During the last lockdowns, London landlords quickly suffered 20pc rent drops. These have bounced back fast, but the growth is wholly dependent on students, workers and corporate relocators, who could all disappear just as speedily as they returned.

Crucially, a surge of coronavirus and the spectre of a winter lockdown and other restrictions could destroy sentiment, particularly if it is combined with anticipated interest rate rises. The spread of omicron may trigger fall-throughs over Christmas, if “that fear factor comes back”, said Mr Askew. 

But in smaller city markets, the return of lockdown restrictions could bring a further surge of buyers. In Edinburgh, sales have boomed since the housing market reopened in the summer of 2020, driven in part by a large jump in people moving from England.

Ben Fox, of Savills estate agents, said his office has recorded a 70pc jump year-on-year in the number of buyers registering from London.

“Typically we have 700 or 800 active buyers on our books. That has increased to more than 3,000,” said Mr Fox. Houses are frequently selling for 25pc over their Home Report valuations. “This time last year, in the face of another lockdown, the Edinburgh property market traded at record levels from January to March,” said Mr Fox.

James Thomas, of Savills in Cardiff, said: “We have 24 buyers for every property and 25pc of our normal stock levels… A lockdown could push values even higher.”

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