There is no formula to the fall of governments, and no inevitable timeline to events that lead voters to conclude it is “time for change”. But among common characteristics of tired governments tend to be arrogance, complacency and disdain for democratic scrutiny.

This Government is not in such territory, but unanswered questions remain about Whitehall Christmas parties last year. The Cabinet Secretary is investigating, Conservative MPs are struggling to contain their anger, and opinion polls suggest swing voters no longer give the Prime Minister the benefit of the doubt. North Shropshire, a safe Tory seat for decades, might fall to the Liberal Democrats on Thursday.

We should know not only who attended which parties, but who sanctioned them, who was aware of them, and why, once senior figures in Whitehall knew about them, nothing was done. Allegra Stratton, the adviser who resigned last week, will not be the only casualty. Other heads will roll: heads important enough to show that the PM understands the seriousness of the breach of trust between the people and what once called itself the People’s Government.

The charge of selfishness – that illegal parties were fine for people in Government even as they closed down Christmas for everyone else – is especially toxic for the Tories. While Labour’s reputational weaknesses are based on an unwillingness to take difficult decisions, fiscal irresponsibility and economic mismanagement, compounded more recently by ideological extremism, a disrespect for democracy following the Brexit referendum and the party’s enthusiastic embrace of all things woke, the Conservatives have a problem with the perception that they can be elitist, uncaring and in it only for themselves and rich people like them.

This is, of course, almost wholly a caricature. Because conservatism is not an ideology, it eschews unrealistic accounts of human nature and overly simple policies that follow. By insisting that the state does not have every answer to every problem, believing that there is an upper limit to taxing families and businesses, and arguing that many problems are solved by tackling long-term problems like family breakdown and the erosion of community, it can be easy for the Conservatives’ opponents to paint them as uncaring. 

For more libertarian Tories, the charge carries greater weight. The freedom they champion might, as one critic almost put it, be wonderful for the pike, but can mean death for the minnow. Not for nothing did Ayn Rand, a favourite philosopher among some libertarian Tories, call a collection of her essays, The Virtue of Selfishness. 

It is difficult to overestimate how dangerous the perception of selfishness is for a party that was elected on promises to end austerity, invest in the regions, spend on services and infrastructure and, following years of economic and social decline in too many communities, foster a greater sense of solidarity and collective purpose. Does the party – blamed already by opponents for adopting austerity and causing regional economic stagnation in the 1980s – really mean it? Or was it all just words?

Yet the Christmas parties are not the only problem. There are questions about the beneficiaries of procurement decisions made, as the virus first raged, in the Department of Health. There are doubts about whether Lord Geidt, the Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests, was given a full account of the financial arrangements for the decoration of the Prime Minister’s Downing Street flat. There was the botched attempt to overturn the suspension of Owen Paterson for lobbying ministers on behalf of a company that employed him. 

Add to this the lobbying by David Cameron on behalf of a company seeking to profit through the needless financialisation of public assets, and questions about the private work of Lord Udny-Lister, the Prime Minister’s former chief of staff tipped by some to return, and the problem appears quite stark.

Some say there is little Boris Johnson can do about any of this, for the problem, they argue, is him. To the extent that, as Prime Minister, the buck stops with him, this is true. But we do not know the full story of the Covid rule-breaking, and Lord Geidt may yet be satisfied by the PM’s explanation for the alleged discrepancy between what he was told about the Downing Street flat and the findings of the Electoral Commission.

It will be difficult personally for the PM to confront some of the arguments against him, for they relate to his very own character and, however self-aware a politician might be, nobody can play their own adviser. Johnson cannot admit what is said about him, for he has insisted, very robustly, that it is untrue. He will find it difficult to accept, explicitly, even partial culpability, so far into the crisis and having already said so much. With blood in the water, doing so would anyway invite further political danger.

What he can do, however, is show that things are changing, through transparency and through actions, not words. Once the Cabinet Secretary’s inquiry is complete, senior members of the Downing Street team will need to leave and when they do, there will be an opportunity to appoint new advisers capable of gripping the government machine and showing a commitment to probity and decency. Such changes should also bring an end to factionalism within the operation and allow a singular, ruthless focus on achieving the Government’s ambitious policy objectives.

To meet those objectives, the Prime Minister should also draw his Cabinet closer. Distrusting ministers makes for bad policy, poor execution and, when the chips are down, plotting and disloyalty. Ministers and advisers with a better sense of, and relationship with, the party in Parliament and the country would also help.

Without becoming a confession, this would all show that the PM knows that change is necessary, and, while he still believes he is the man for the job, that he also knows that he needs colleagues and advisers who complement not compound his own characteristics. More importantly, he would also convey that the Government still has the drive to do its job, and understands that there is no virtue in selfishness.