Ever since Freedom Day on July 19, the unspoken but widely adopted formulation for scientists and health officials is to be agnostic on the subject of restrictions, saying only that it is “a matter for ministers”. Even Imperial College’s Prof Neil Ferguson (better known now as Professor Lockdown) has long since stopped calling for restrictions – openly at least.
We face a “very explosive wave of infection” he told the Guardian on Friday. “The omicron wave could very substantially overwhelm the NHS, getting up to peak levels of admissions of 10,000 people per day.”
But you don’t need to read far into the minutes of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to see tough choices the Prime Minister will need to grapple with over the next few days.
“It is highly likely that there will be a change in contact patterns over the festive period,” noted the scientists of the SPI-M-O subgroup of Sage noted on Nov 24.
The overall number of contacts between people may fall over Christmas. But – and it’s a big but – “there is typically increased mixing across generations and between networks that may not normally meet” during the festive period.
“This is accompanied by activities, such as increased shopping or work parties, as well as increased travel across the country,” the report said.
‘It feels like a kind of de facto lockdown’
It was only in September that some were saying the Covid epidemic in England had “de facto ended” but now it’s lockdown that some are saying is “de facto back”.
Rachel, 26, was meant to move into a new flat with her boyfriend this week in Putney. Instead the pair are isolating with another couple in a small two bedroom flat in South London, after they all tested positive.
“We were going to visit my sister in Vienna for Christmas but I won’t come out of isolation soon enough now, so that’s all been cancelled,” she says. “It just sort of feels like a kind of de facto lockdown, despite having a vaccine. The government hasn’t sorted it’s booster programme well. It’s quite frustrating.”
There is worry among older generations too. Parents and grandparents all over the country are concerned about their children – and whether it’s a good idea to invite them in.
“My daughter couldn’t come home last year because of the London lockdown, and it broke my heart,” says Mary, 65. “My own parents had died in a short space from one another, and I was so looking forward to spending some family time together.”
The family had an argument over Christmas plans last weekend, one of many happening up and down the country. “I snapped at her when she told me she was going into the office with hundreds of others,” Mary says. “She said it was out of her control, and I think I said she was being selfish. This year, I really want her back.”
Working out whether to mix this Christmas is far from easy – not least because so much depends on people’s personal tolerance for risk.
