Rising interest rates trigger fears of house price falls

The persistent strength of both the labour market and inflation suggest that the Bank could be pushed to raise rates higher than anticipated, said Mr Wishart. Job vacancies are at record highs and inflation in November hit a 10-year high.

The Bank last month raised its forecast for the April 2022 CPI inflation peak from 5pc to 6pc – three times its target rate.

It is clear the momentum of the Bank’s policy has picked up fast. The research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics has brought forward its forecast for a further rise to 0.5pc by three months. It now expects this to happen in May, followed by a jump to 0.75pc in November, and further rise to 1pc in May 2023. 

Markets, however, expect an earlier rise to 0.5pc in February.

Crucially, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee acknowledged signs of greater persistence in domestic cost and price pressures. In other words, high inflation is not likely to be as transitory as it had hoped.

“There is a clear risk of a less benign scenario in which the MPC is forced to raise interest rates by more, and raise the possibility of house price falls,” said Mr Wishart.

Meanwhile, however, a continued surge in omicron cases will trigger a drop in consumer spending. Unless this is met by government support, it will take a heavy toll on the labour market. The housing market could have to grapple with rising unemployment.

But in the short-term, omicron could contribute to even higher rates of inflation by bringing further disruption to supply chains.

Andrew Montlake, of mortgage broker Coreco, said a quick succession of rises could unnerve the market regardless.

“If there are two or three rises in quick succession then that changes everything,” said Mr Montlake.

“Nobody is used to rising rates. This rise feels like it is more significant than it is, it feels like it is massive because everyone has got so used to very low rates. There is a whole generation that is not used to high rates,” said Mr Montlake.

Related Posts

Property Management in Dubai: Effective Rental Strategies and Choosing a Management Company

“Property Management in Dubai: Effective Rental Strategies and Choosing a Management Company” In Dubai, one of the most dynamically developing regions in the world, the real estate…

In Poland, an 18-year-old Ukrainian ran away from the police and died in an accident, – media

The guy crashed into a roadside pole at high speed. In Poland, an 18-year-old Ukrainian ran away from the police and died in an accident / illustrative…

NATO saw no signs that the Russian Federation was planning an attack on one of the Alliance countries

Bauer recalled that according to Article 3 of the NATO treaty, every country must be able to defend itself. Rob Bauer commented on concerns that Russia is…

The Russian Federation has modernized the Kh-101 missile, doubling its warhead, analysts

The installation of an additional warhead in addition to the conventional high-explosive fragmentation one occurred due to a reduction in the size of the fuel tank. The…

Four people killed by storm in European holiday destinations

The deaths come amid warnings of high winds and rain thanks to Storm Nelson. Rescuers discovered bodies in two separate incidents / photo ua.depositphotos.com Four people, including…

Egg baba: a centuries-old recipe of 24 yolks for Catholic Easter

They like to put it in the Easter basket in Poland. However, many countries have their own variations of “bab”. The woman’s original recipe is associated with…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *