It cannot have been easy for the Prime Minister, but he has made the right decision in ruling out further restrictions before Christmas. His intervention earlier in the week had thrown millions of people’s plans into confusion, since he had held out the possibility of introducing new measures at any moment. Now they can enjoy the festivities with their families without the threat of a last-minute volte-face from the Government.

The decision is said to have been partly forced on Boris Johnson by his Cabinet, but the data already appears to be less gloomy than some of the more pessimistic modelling had anticipated. The Prime Minister maintains that the situation “remains finely balanced”, and there is still the risk that new restrictions will be introduced after Christmas Day. It is to be hoped that these, too, will be judged to be unnecessary, because even the current measures have proven to be extraordinarily costly.

Indeed, despite the biggest vaccine campaign in history, the country is heading into a period almost as restrictive as during the height of the pandemic. The Welsh government has banned anyone from attending sports events over Christmas. In Scotland, football matches will also be largely played behind closed doors until mid January and Hogmanay celebrations have been cancelled after Nicola Sturgeon added to her pre-Christmas “guidance”. The problem with these measures is that they will keep more people indoors which is where the virus is most likely to spread.

Moreover, even without a formal lockdown, the Chancellor has felt the need to dip into his depleted coffers to find more money to help companies impacted by the latest Covid surge.

The collapse in business began last week with a No 10 press conference at which Boris Johnson wanted to urge caution but not kill off pre-Christmas activities entirely. But Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said the public should be careful about which events they attended. Inevitably, most people have prioritised Christmas Day itself ahead of parties, pantos and even carol concerts. The knock-on effect has been calamitous for the hospitality, leisure and artistic sectors.

Most of their difficulties have been caused by a drop in trade at their busiest time of the year. The Treasury says around 200,000 businesses could be in line for cash grants of up to £6,000 per premises under the plan but this falls well short of what they could have expected to take in pre-Christmas activity. Also while the money will help hospitality outlets, their suppliers do not benefit under this package and yet they will be hit just as hard.

One reason the Government is rightly reluctant to order a full lockdown is that it would then be bound to pay full compensation to affected businesses and possibly reopen the furlough scheme for employees.

Mr Sunak’s room for manoeuvre has been constrained by the vast amounts already spent over the past 18 months. The latest ONS figures show Government borrowing at £17.4 billion in November, £5 billion higher than the previous month and far ahead of where it was expected to be even just a few months ago. It has been pushed up principally by higher interest payments and the costs of the vaccine booster programme.

Although the deficit almost halved to £136 billion in the first eight months of the year, the Chancellor is set to overshoot the forecasts made by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Mr Sunak could find himself trapped in a vicious circle as further Covid restrictions stoke inflationary pressures, piling further pressure on the public finances.

At his Budget in October, the Chancellor held out the prospect of being able to bring taxes down before the next election but these figures and the latest Covid surge suggest this ambition is a pipe dream even if borrowing costs do remain historically low.

Too often during this pandemic, ministers have been spooked by alarmist modelling and have rushed into restrictions without giving due regard to whether they are proportionate or even affordable. That cannot go on.

This year, Christmas may have been saved and other welcome changes are being made, such as a reduction in the self-isolation period from 10 to seven days. But before any further measures are imposed, their costs should be confronted beforehand.