Growth remains strong but if the foreign investors Erdogan seeks to expel actually do give up, there are likely to be damaging consequences for what had long been seen as one of the world’s most promising economies. It’s about 18 months until Turkey next holds an election – a crash could come sooner.
Fastest-growing economy: Ireland
Ireland’s economy has been in the spotlight this year as rich nations thrashed out a major deal to introduce a 15pc minimum rate of corporation tax. Aimed at clamping down on multinationals which shop around for the cheapest locations to place their overseas headquarters, it carried particular significance for Ireland which has seen strong economic growth fueled by its fiercely-protected 12.5pc tax rate.
The low rate’s days may now be numbered, but Irish eyes were likely smiling as steeper increases were rejected during negotiations. In 2021, the distorting impact of the huge amounts of multinational activity that takes place in the country will fuel huge theoretical growth – the OECD expects Irish GDP will rise a staggering 15.2pc this year.
Underlying growth is likely to be markedly smaller, with finance ministry economist John McCarthy saying earlier this year that he would be more focused on an anticipated 5.2pc increase in domestic demand. In a simpler system, countries such as India would have a strong shot at being the fastest grower, but Ireland takes it this year.
Best and worst commodity: Coffee and iron
Gas has seized a lot of attention in 2021 as prices continually hit record highs. But in the broadest view, one commodity has been bubbling like no other: coffee.
Coffee prices soared to the highest level in a decade in 2021, as the after-effects of a poor harvest in top producer Brazil fed through into the market. The price of arabica beans – used by Starbucks and considered the benchmark of quality coffee – perked up even more after winter frosts in Brazil. Fellow major producers Colombia and Ethiopia have also experienced problems.