In normal times, the week between Christmas and New Year sees a remarkable phenomenon on Google. There’s a huge surge in people searching for holidays. The hangover has kicked in, Christmas is over, winter is dragging on – we all want something to look forward to. And the best way to beat the January blues is to start researching our summer break. 

Tour operators and airlines know this – it’s always the best month for bookings – and do their best to grab our attention with discounts, special offers and other incentives. British Airways (ba.com) has already launched a sale for 2022 which continues until Jan 25, the TUI (tui.co.uk) and Jet2 (jet2holidays.com) websites are full of promotions and Trailfinders (trailfinders.com) has several different airline sales.

But how should we react this year? Should we be tempted by this flurry of promotion? Is it crazy to be thinking about committing to a holiday when we are in the midst of the worst surge of Covid cases since the pandemic began? Or, taking the longer view, is this a moment to seize a bargain? 

The answer depends on what sort of holiday you are hoping for and when you are thinking of travelling. For example, for those who are constrained by school holidays, it still seems wise to consider making a provisional booking. The same may also be true if you are after certain categories of holiday such as the most popular escorted tours or cruises. And, despite all the uncertainty, as long as you make sure your holiday is protected and can be changed without cost if necessary, you won’t be taking a risk with your money (see Bookers Beware, below).

Here is our case-by-case verdict on whether you should book now or wait and see. I’ve focused on Europe, which is where the majority of people travel in summer, though the same advice also applies to holidays in North America. 

School-age families

Nick’s advice: consider booking now

Despite all the uncertainties, if you are tied to school vacation week, my strong inclination would be to secure your holiday now and take advantage of the best prices you can find. Even if those prices drop later, you will have had the pick of the best hotels and villas – and of flights at the most civilised times from the most convenient airports. Frankly, there are some extraordinarily low prices available at the moment and I really wonder if they are likely to drop much further. For example, you can book Saturday to Saturday flights from London to Mallorca over the spring bank holiday at the moment for about £60 with Ryanair (ryanair.com), or £70 with easyJet (easyjet.com).

So, assuming the threat from the virus recedes, what is the prognosis for the main holiday weeks? Easter Sunday is late this year – April 17 – which means the southern Mediterranean, as well as the Canaries, is looking good for a sunny break. And while there is always a lot of pressure on the spring half-term week, that looks likely only to increase in 2022 because of the double bank ­holiday on June 2 and 3 celebrating the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee. This means people can enjoy nine days’ holiday but take only three days’ leave, so those airfares I have just mentioned look exceptional value. The main summer break starts on July 23 and prices are already starting to tick up on departures for this date. If you can’t find the price you want for that week, try looking at the middle or end of August, when demand and prices normally tail off a little.

If you are looking for holiday accommodation in Britain during peak periods, you need to get it sorted sooner rather than later. Before Christmas, National Trust holiday cottages (nationaltrust.org.uk/holidays) had already sold 80 per cent of its capacity for the Whitsun week and 60 per cent for the week from July 23. 

Singles 

Nick’s advice: book escorted tours for the spring now

Single travellers don’t just go on specialised solos’ holidays. In fact, escorted cultural tours (and cruises) are far more popular as a way of enjoying a sociable time. These holidays can quickly sell out, particularly to popular destinations such as Venice, Rome and Pompeii and especially if you are looking to secure a single room. So if you were hoping to travel in the spring, it’s worth looking at the options now. Remember too that spring and autumn – not July and August – are the peak seasons when demand is highest for cultural tours. 

Cruisers 

Nick’s advice: book preferred cabins now

After two years of disruption there is a huge amount of pent-up demand from regular ­cruisers. So you definitely need to monitor any departures you may have your eye on and book if you see a price that appeals to you or if your preferred type of cabin is starting to sell out.  This is especially true of the more specialised small ship cruises and destinations with limited capacity, such as Antarctica and the Galapagos.