The latest data on omicron appears to be promising. The cases data suggests, tentatively, that the wave might have peaked in London, at it has now clearly peaked in various parts of South Africa. Detailed analyses of the action of the virus in the body is offering more support for the (still very provisional) hypothesis that it may be a bit milder than delta was, and evidence from South Africa suggests that stays in hospital appear to be materially shorter.

Cases having peaked already in London would, if that really turns out to be so, be a considerable surprise. The most likely factors appear to be some combination of increased working from home (which in previous waves has induced a particularly sharp drop in R in London, where the scope for working from home is especially high), self-imposed restrictions on activities ahead of Christmas (with people not wanting to risk being sick during the festive season and whilst mixing with elderly relatives), and perhaps some drop-off in taking tests or reporting positive results when the disease is mild and people want to avoid the full period of self-isolation.

If voluntarily chosen adjustments in behaviour can be so successful in controlling even such a transmissible variant, that strongly calls into question the case for formal restrictions. The Cabinet, having deferred its decision yesterday, apparently stands ready to introduce new restrictions if the data changes at any point.

One especially pertinent piece of data is the current number of people in hospital with Covid: 6,688 in England as of December 20th. That compares with 16,633 on December 20th last year and 34,336 at the peak last January. The fact that we begin from such a low number of Covid patients in hospital, and that the omicron wave is so much sharper (quicker up, and expected to be quicker down) than last year’s alpha wave (what we called the “Kent variant”, at the time) means that comparisons of the peak number of people being admitted to hospital each day are inadequate as a measure of the burden on the NHS.

In January 2021 the peak day involved 4,134 Covid admissions in England. When we hear talk of how, absent restrictions, there might be 5,000 new admissions a day that seems very serious. And of course for those admitted it is. But in terms of the burden on the NHS it is much less than it might appear. Because with the omicron spike happening so fast and we being on such a low number of Covid patients in hospital, even with a peak of nearly 6,000 a day new admissions we would be unlikely to come near the January 2021 peak. And that is even with an average 6 day stay in hospital. Data from South Africa suggests omicron stays are much shorter than that.

So things look promising for being able to avoid restrictions. Cases may already have peaked in London, through behaviour change, as they have clearly now done in South Africa. Omicron may be slightly milder, at least to the extent of involving shorter hospital stays when they happen. And because omicron’s wave is so fast, we can bear more daily hospitalisations with less total burden on the NHS.

With a bit of common sense and being careful about mixing with the elderly and vulnerable, it looks like we should be able to get through this without further restrictions on our freedoms.