Some level of economic pain is all but guaranteed, as the world’s economies adjust, yet again, to new circumstances. Yet this transition has never been properly communicated to the public, who are set to endure a financially difficult winter.
Indeed, Johnson insisted in his party conference speech last October that shortages of goods and labour were a recipe for “high wage, high skill, high productivity” economy, a pledge that looks increasingly unlikely to pay off.
So Rees-Mogg’s intervention makes a lot of sense, in light of the other financial burdens people are currently shouldering: energy prices might not be in the Government’s control (no matter how much they pretend so with the energy price cap), but tax rates are. Don’t go for a Treasury money grab at a time when people will really find those pounds missing from their pockets.
It’s the right sentiment, but an incomplete one. Were the Government to take Rees-Mogg’s advice and roll back the levy, there would be a £12bn pound hole to fill in its day-to-day spending. Johnson’s plans for social care cannot be placed in the emergency spending camp: they are a long-term strategy to ensure that the assets of wealthier citizens are protected in the case of needing long-term care. It is not money that can be chalked up to Covid costs.
This is Sunak’s point: tax rises aren’t desirable, but the money’s got to come from somewhere. He’s put an end to picking from the magic money tree, as inflation and interest rate hikes are set to hit the public finances as well as people’s pockets: a 1pc rise in rates means finding roughly £20bn extra just to service the debt.
So to avoid raising taxes – on track, under this Conservative Government, to soon reach a 71-year high – another difficult choice would need to be made: spending cuts elsewhere or rolling back the size of Johnson’s new spending programmes.
Health spending is already expected to reach 44pc of day-to-day public service expenditure by 2024. Adding even more funds to the pot requires a trade-off somewhere, and while Rees-Mogg may be happy to roll back the size of the state, it’s not at all obvious that Johnson would be willing to U-turn on his social care plans, or suffer accusations of “austerity” by redirecting public funds from another area of government.