Inflation to hit almost 7pc, warns Goldman Sachs

Britain is likely to suffer far higher inflation than the eurozone as the cost of living crisis intensifies this spring.

Inflation will surge to a peak of almost 7pc in the UK in April, according to Jari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs.

By contrast he thinks price rises on the continent have already passed their worst point with inflation of 4.6pc in the final quarter of 2021 dropping to 3.9pc in the opening three months of 2022.

Mr Stehn said: “We think eurozone inflation has peaked and will soften to fall back below 2pc from here.”

In the short-term that is driven by factors such as last year’s rise in German VAT dropping out of the annual comparisons, but there are also signs of limited pay rises and some slack in the southern European nations which will keep a lid on price pressures.

Mr Stehn added: “That contrasts quite significantly with what we expect in the UK. The peak in the UK is meaningfully higher, headline inflation we think will climb to almost 7pc as there is a big increase that is likely coming in the energy cap.”

He expects inflation to slow from that point, but the investment bank still expects annual consumer price rises of 4pc in the final quarter of the year.

That is double the Bank of England’s 2pc target, raising the prospect of more interest rate rises following December’s increase from 0.1pc to 0.25pc.

Mr Stehn predicts three hikes this year, taking the base rate to 1pc.

“The Monetary Policy Committee has been pretty unpredictable recently so there is a significant amount of uncertainty about the exact timing, but we think first of all the strength of the data is pointing towards more hikes in the near term,” he said, pointing to high inflation and a strong jobs market.

By contrast he expects the European Central Bank to keep its main deposit rate on hold this year and in 2023.

It came as the World Bank warned the UK is one of the economies most vulnerable to a prolonged surge in inflation that lasts well into 2022 as omicron threatens to cause more supply disruptions.

Rocketing infections, supply bottlenecks and slashed government stimulus will cause global growth to “decelerate markedly” to 4.1pc in 2022, down from 5.5pc last year, according to its latest forecasts. The predictions were a small downgrade on its June 2021 forecasts.

World Bank president David Malpass warned that “challenging times lie ahead for the global economy” as governments cut back on stimulus and borrowing conditions are tightened by interest rate rises.

He said: “The world economy is simultaneously facing Covid, inflation, and policy uncertainty, with government spending and monetary policies in uncharted territory.”

Growth in advanced countries will slow to 3.8pc in 2022 before decelerating further to 2.3pc in 2023 with the eurozone economy set to outpace the US this year as it continues its recovery.

The World Bank did not produce UK-specific forecasts but did warn Britain is in a group of economies most at risk of inflation expectations running out of control.  

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