Liverpool’s games are too chaotic for them to keep pace in the title race

Liverpool’s draw at Chelsea was their Premier League away season in miniature: thrilling in attack, walking a tightrope in defence and generally lacking the kind of control that has helped Manchester City amass an 11-point advantage over them. 

Jurgen Klopp’s team led twice at Brentford before they were pegged back in a 3-3 draw; they conceded three more in a chaotic defeat at West Ham; were fortunate to escape with a 2-2 draw at Tottenham before squandering a two-goal lead at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Liverpool were never comfortable in the game despite scoring through Sadio Mane and a magnificent Mohamed Salah finish. They were unable to keep their opponents pinned back in the manner we have become accustomed to, with Chelsea playing out from deep with ease and making Liverpool defend in their own half for long stretches. 

Liverpool were forced to play a game of moments, and it is testament to their individual quality that they still produced enough in these passages to win the game with sharper finishing. 

“We should have controlled the game better,” said Liverpool coach Pep Ljinders, standing in for Klopp who was absent due to a suspected Covid case. “We had moments already before the 2-0; we were lethal in our counter-attacks. In the moments we played, we really connected well and we were quick in mind, thought about the next pass.” 

So why are Liverpool conceding goals on the road and struggling to sustain pressure as they once did? 

Numbers show a home and away split

Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to defending: try to suppress the number of shots faced, or seek to suppress the quality of those shots. 

Klopp’s Liverpool have always been in the first category. They want to stifle opposition attacks before they even begin, setting up camp in the other team’s half and looking to counter-press aggressively to regain the ball whenever they lose it. In order to stay compact and keep the team connected, the centre-backs push up high and have to be comfortable defending space. The profile of the defenders signed under Klopp – Joel Matip, Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate – tells you what they prioritise in this position. 

This approach brings a degree of risk – if a chance is conceded it is more likely to be of high quality – but Klopp accepts this gambit because of the dominance and exceptional attacking output it helps his team sustain. 

Liverpool remain a serious team, facing the second fewest shots on target and conceding the second fewest expected goals behind Manchester City. Only City and Chelsea have conceded fewer goals. 

There is however, a notable split between games at Anfield and those on the road. At home, Liverpool rank second for shots faced, shots on target faced and expected goals conceded, while for big chances faced they are sixth. In away matches, Liverpool drop to ninth in the Premier League for expected goals conceded and 11th for big chances faced. 

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