She has had a torrid time of late in the Home Office, especially over the Channel migrant issue. It is difficult to see how she would have enough support to get to the final two but never underestimate the ‘Pritster’. She has remarkable bounce back-ability.

Most Likely to Say: “Bang ‘em up”

Least Likely to Say: “I do have a touchy feely side you know”

Odds: 20/1

Outsiders

Steve Baker

The conscience of the Tory right, Steve Baker may throw his hat into the ring. He will not expect to win but he will want to ensure the debate is held on his terms. He would certainly make the debates interesting.

Odds: 100/1

Gillian Keegan

A bright, breezy performer in the media, she knows how to speak “human”. An impressive performer in her job as apprentices minister, she now handles the social care and mental health portfolio. Too early this time, maybe, but if Boris Johnson hangs on she has the opportunity to be a contender next time.

Odds: 75/1

Brandon Lewis

Could Brandon Lewis be a classic compromise candidate, uniting all wings of the party? He knows the party membership from his time as party chairman and is a trusted media performer. 

The only non Boris supporter to be retained in his first Cabinet, Mr Lewis has performed well in a difficult portfolio in Northern Ireland. Having supported Remain, he is now seen as more hardline than most over negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Odds: 33/1

Tom Tugendhat

His biggest drawback is a complete lack of ministerial experience, but he has made an impact as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. 

A powerful speaker, he has been warning of Chinese influence in our politics for a long time and his speech on the Afghan withdrawal was the parliamentary moment of 2021. But does he have enough support among fellow MPs?

Odds: 33/1

Tobias Ellwood

Omnipresent on our television screens, Tobias Ellwood may want to put a marker down for whoever is next leader, in a bid to bag a Cabinet position. A staunch defender of the interests of the Armed Forces and critic of current foreign policy, he would certainly shake up a contest.

Odds: 50/1