But the phone is still ringing. Blockbuster deals in December included a potential auction of high street pharmacy Boots by its American owners, putting the sale of one of Britain’s best-known chains on the cards for 2022.
Despite choppy waters ahead due to the fast-spreading omicron variant, Davies says the M&A party is not necessarily over. He believes deals will still be driven by businesses racing to become more green and climate friendly, while others will be scrambling to boost their digital credentials. Takeovers are a popular way for companies to do these things quickly, he says.
“The M&A party looks like it’s continuing in 2022, and shows no appetite for heading back into lockdown.”
Dwayne Lysaght, co-head of European M&A at JP Morgan, agrees there will be “no let-up in 2022” as cash-rich companies continue to use takeovers as a fast way to reshape their business. The pandemic has, for instance, accelerated the importance of technology as millions of people worked from home. Companies lacking in this area are hunting for deals.
“Coming off the back of a record year for M&A globally, we see many of the same drivers fuelling a strong 2022 – companies are increasingly using M&A to transform and innovate more quickly,” adds Lysaght. “This growth has been across all sectors, and especially in technology given how much we have all relied on it during the pandemic.”
Yet for many boards, conversations in recent weeks will have turned to one of survival. Thousands of businesses are now facing a brutal winter, with vaccine optimism of earlier in the year giving way to consumer pessimism and empty high streets.
A survey by Bank of America this month found that just under half of Britons now believe life will never return to normal, a record high and up sharply from around 20pc at the start of the year. As the pandemic enters its third year and confidence nosedives, deal activity could be driven by more distressed asset sales and more tie-ups could be pulled.
Yet Andy Hartwill, who is responsible for investment strategy at law firm Simmons & Simmons, says there has always been an expectation that activity would dip next year and so omicron has not had a huge impact on advisers’ projections.
“We call 2022 a year of transition from sprint to marathon. So, beyond the human tragedy, while omicron has the potential to slow the pace of economic activity, long-term trends are unlikely to be greatly disturbed with companies seeking opportunistically to position themselves in growth areas around ESG [environmental, social, and corporate governance] and digitalisation,” he says.
“In the shorter term any further slowdown in activity caused by omicron would likely underscore one of our other themes for 2022 – defensive M&A among companies seeking to protect their profit margins.”
For now, buyers still seem hungry. Despite the disappointing end to 2021 as many cancelled plans in the run-up to Christmas day, the advisers who have earned a fortune on this year’s deal frenzy insist they are not yet spooked. Potential takeovers are still being mapped out.
Nick O’Donnell, a lawyer at law firm Bird & Bird, says it will take a huge shock to rattle the market. “Although recessions are nasty things, they are short-lived and governments will ride to the rescue. That narrative doesn’t hold for the early 1990’s, but stories from pre-internet days don’t have much impact. With that freedom from fear, the deal-making will continue until a major political or economic shock turns up.”