“I don’t think the zero-Covid strategy is likely to change before the party congress at the end of this year, which I think actually means in practice probably spring of 2023,” says Professor Rana Mitter, director of the University of Oxford’s China Centre.

Mitter argues there have been recent hints by state-run media that could suggest “there is unhappiness about the current balance of factions in the top leadership”. Some commentators have also speculated recent moves by Xi, such as an investigation into former justice minister Fu Zhenghua, signals his unease.

Mitter says there is “almost no doubt” Xi will be handed another term but adds there are “big flashing warning lights” for Beijing to deal with, including the Evergrande crisis, climate change and deteriorating job prospects for university graduates. 

The zero-Covid strategy helped China escape major economic damage in the early part of the pandemic by stemming infection rates enough to reopen, making it the only major economy to grow in 2020. 

But the ultra-transmissible omicron ramps up the risk of stop-start restrictions and global spillover effects if ports and factories are shuttered again. 

Craig Botham, China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says 2022 growth could slow to below 4pc in a plausible downside scenario where omicron gains a footing in the country and forces widespread strict restrictions.

“The pressure on the economy will mean [the government will] have to do something and that will mean, for example, increased government borrowing in 2022 so a lot more fiscal support.”

Beijing has already moved to shore up its economy with the central bank cutting its key lending rate and banks’ required buffers of money. Officials have vowed to unveil more support in recent weeks as the economy stuttered even before the growing threat of omicron.

Economists warn this could stoke global inflationary pressures that are squeezing households in the UK, US and Europe.

Supply bottlenecks boosting prices have been worsened by Covid outbreaks causing factory shutdowns and congestion at ports from Los Angeles to China. Recent cases in the region have stoked fears of a repeat. 

“If that’s shutting down important ports, or important factories for the global supply chain, there is clearly a risk there’s further supply shocks and shocks to global inflation,” says Jonathan Ashworth, China economist at Fathom Consulting.

“When inflation is already elevated, it increases the risk that it becomes more persistent at a higher level.”

As China’s zero-Covid strategy threatens to spark tension over Xi’s grip and slam the brakes on 2022 growth, the wider global economy will also suffer.