Mr Johnson also wins a grace period of a year, during which he recovers his party’s position in the polls, putting him on a strong footing for the next election.

Mr Johnson and Douglas Ross part ways

The calls for Boris Johnson to stand down are largely confined to Scotland, where Douglas Ross leads the criticism of the Prime Minister. It becomes untenable for Mr Ross and Mr Johnson to exist as leaders of the same party in different countries. The former’s criticism of the UK Government makes him unpalatable to senior Tories in England, while Scottish voters are unconvinced at the ballot box by a party that is clearly divided.

Unionists are concerned that Mr Johnson’s unpopularity north of the border makes their fight against the SNP more difficult, and break away from the Conservatives to form a separate party in Scotland. They form a pact after the 2024 election.

Mr Johnson bites the bullet – and resigns

Concerned that the “partygate” scandal could damage the long-term success of his party, Mr Johnson is convinced by the “men in grey suits” on his back benches that the time has come to resign. He does not wait for the conclusion of the Gray inquiry, allowing his successor to dismiss its findings as irrelevant to a new administration.

A protracted Conservative leadership election follows, during which the UK’s recovery from Covid and the cost of living crisis are the main issues that candidates address. The gatherings in Downing Street are associated with Mr Johnson’s premiership and do not damage the Tories at the next election.