A survey by the Conservative Home website over the weekend revealed that the majority of Conservative Party members think the “partygate” row is overblown, a reversal of the result when its last poll was taken a month ago, even though more parties have come to light since then.
Tory MPs have reported that constituents are starting to move on from the row, with increasing numbers voicing discomfort about an elected leader being removed from office by a combination of the police, civil servants and the media.
The fact that Dominic Cummings gave an interview to New York Magazine at the weekend saying it was his “duty to get rid” of Mr Johnson will also give MPs pause for thought: Mr Cummings will always be more unpopular with backbenchers than Mr Johnson, and any sense that they are doing his bidding will rankle.
It remains possible that the Prime Minister will make a statement to Parliament today, and could publish it today, before flying abroad to seek a solution to Vladimir Putin’s aggression on the Ukrainian border.
In that scenario, Mr Johnson would hope that MPs will hold off submitting letters of no confidence in him and will step back from the brink if he is seen to have done a good job on the most pressing foreign policy matter of the day.
If the Gray report is deeply critical of the culture in Downing Street the threshold of 54 letters of no confidence needed to trigger a vote on replacing the Prime Minister could be crossed. If that happens, Mr Johnson will have lost control over his future.
Without the 54 letters, though, Mr Johnson will hope that the police investigation into Partygate will buy him more time in which to rebuild his Downing Street operation and put more distance between himself and the events of 2020 and 2021.
The police have asked for “minimal” reference to be made into the eight parties they are investigating to be made in the preliminary report due to be released by Sue Gray this week.
If the police eventually decide that Boris Johnson did not break the law, the full, unredacted Sue Gray report could have lost its sting by the time it is released.
