Credit Suisse thinks that the earnings of energy stocks will be a massive 240pc higher in the three months under review than they were a year ago. That’s because pretty much all the rise in the selling price of their product drops through to the bottom line. They have relatively fixed costs.
Other big winners this time round will be materials companies, on the back of soaring commodity prices, as well as industrials.
Offsetting these buoyant sectors will be financials, which enjoyed lots of profitable work a year ago, but this year are struggling with a narrow gap between the interest rates at which they borrow and lend. Consumer discretionary firms are also looking at declining profits, in large part due to weak car sales as the supply of computer chips has dried up.
So, the outlook for earnings is mixed, but in aggregate modestly positive. Which brings us to the second part of the share price equation.
How much should investors be paying for those earnings?
And this is where it all gets a bit tricky. Because while paying about 19 times this year’s earnings might make sense when profits are rising and interest rates are low, it leaves less margin for error when earnings growth is slowing and interest rates are going up.
The good news is that the multiple of earnings has been reducing for a year or so because investors have not been oblivious to what’s going on.
The bad news is that history suggests it might have to fall a bit further before it represents fair value. Let’s say that investors decide they only want to pay 17 times earnings, rather than 19. All other things being equal, earnings will need to rise by about 10pc just to make good the difference. And this explains why stock markets are in the doldrums right now.
Shares are caught between two opposing forces – modestly rising earnings but a dwindling appetite to pay up for a share of those profits.
How this two-way pull finally resolves itself will be determined in large part by the numbers released over the next couple of weeks and even more so by the comments that accompany them.
Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. These views are his own.
