Even without any success in the VW case, Anexo’s shares hardly look expensive on less than 10 times earnings for 2021, a multiple that consensus profit forecasts of a one-fifth increase in earnings per share suggest could fall to barely eight in 2022. 

Such a tempting price tag may explain why asset manager DBay Advisors, a shareholder with a 29pc stake, tried to buy the whole firm at 150p a share last summer, albeit without success.

DBay’s holding, coupled with the 38pc stake held by three senior executives, may make the shares less liquid than some and the spread between brokers’ buying and selling prices (2pc at the time of writing) could be wider than investors are used to, especially for larger stocks.

However, we already have a double-digit percentage paper gain on Anexo and there could be more to come. Hold.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: ANX

Share price at close: 143.5p

Update: Clinigen

Investment firm Triton last week increased its offer for Clinigen, the specialist pharmaceuticals and services company, to 925p a share from December’s initial tilt of 883p. The board is recommending the new bid.

It would be a surprise if the offer were rejected and closure of the deal would present us with a 30pc capital gain in fairly quick time since our first look in August 2020, with dividends on top.

This column does not get it right all the time by any means but at least this may be a good example of how looking for contrarian value can work. Last summer’s price plunge after a profit warning meant the shares had devalued from around 25 times adjusted forecast earnings at their peak in autumn 2017 to barely 10 times.

Valuation remains the ultimate arbiter of investment return. The deal will seal a welcome gain.

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