Rationing is part of the third step of Germany’s emergency gas plan, the first phase of which has been triggered today. The first step involves convening market players for daily monitoring of gas markets, while the third kicks in when there is “significant disruption to supplies” and the market cannot cope.

In that scenario, Germany’s regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, is tasked with securing the “vital demand for gas with special consideration of protected customers and minimising consequential damage”.

That would essentially mean hospitals and households are prioritised for gas, with Germany’s manufacturing heartlands, such as steel-mills, car-makers and glass makers, in line to be told to cut usage first. 

Studies have estimated the potential hit to Germany’s GDP from the curtailment of Russian supplies would be anything between 3pc and 6pc. The already sky-high wholesale price of gas if Russian supplies were cut off, however, is much harder to predict.  

“In the immediate aftermath when there’s no gas flowing [from Russia’], there’s not really any limit to the upside for gas prices,” says Izbicki. “It would just be a crisis moment for the market with everyone just trying to secure as much volume as possible. 

“But we would also expect European governments to actually act relatively swiftly to announce those curtailments on the industrial side, meaning there would be a new equilibrium for gas that is not really forecastable. It depends on how much gas there will be in the system after rationing, and whether there would be restrictions on trading.”