I thought Harlequins were really good against London Irish on Sunday with all their England internationals back, and if they can take that high-tempo game to Montpellier they will cause problems. They are away first, so, say they go there and lose narrowly and come back to The Stoop within seven points, then you would quite fancy Harlequins to progress. But if you get hammered in that first game it becomes difficult to come back, particularly if you have eyes elsewhere on the Premiership as well.
I am not sure Harlequins have the squad depth to go deep in both competitions, which is going to become the burning question for all clubs next season with the reduced salary cap. Who knows if any of them will be able to compete seriously when the salary cap drops next season, particularly in terms of raw power up front against those French packs.
Bristol’s Premiership season is done, so Pat Lam will be drilling into his players that if they win this tie they are only three games away from winning the Champions Cup. That being said, I don’t think they can win it, because they are just not playing well enough. Defensively, they have conceded a lot of points, and they are not creating a huge amount of opportunities in attack. When it clicks, it really does work for them, but Semi Radradra is not making as many breaks and Charles Piutau’s magic from the back has not been there. They are too lateral. Become more direct and they can improve. They have a chance against Sale, but it feels like a toss of a coin between those two.
Historically, in recent years the Irish and French have performed better than the Premiership teams who field their players more often over the season, given the Irish provinces rest their top stars and the French sides have bigger squads. Only Saracens have really been able to compete for a prolonged period over the years at the top in Europe, and we know why their resources were better than anyone else’s.
We could easily have four Premiership sides in the quarter-finals in a few weeks’ time. But there’s still a bigger question around how English sides are going to compete long-term in the Champions Cup.