Overall he expects the economy to shrink by 0.2pc or 0.3pc in the second quarter of the year, marking the first contraction since the lockdown at the start of 2021.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, is similarly downbeat: “February’s slowdown is likely to be the start of a prolonged period of considerably weaker growth as rising inflation, surging energy bills and higher taxes increasingly damages key drivers of UK output, including consumer spending and business investment.”

If that squeeze combines with further plans to trim spending – 40,000 civil service jobs are under threat as the Government starts to chop back Covid-related headcount – and plummeting consumer confidence, then an outright recession could be on the way.

That requires two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, a risk which is entirely plausible given the scale of healthcare spending, as well as soaring inflation, which is already at a 30-year high.

Taxes including national insurance increased this month, the household energy price cap jumped by 54pc, and inflation is expected to break the 8pc mark for the first time since 1991, draining household spending power as wages struggle to come close to keeping up.

Consumer confidence has plunged back to levels last seen in 2020, according to GFK’s long-running surveys of households, with families increasingly worried about committing to major purchases.

Slumping growth in other countries and rising interest rates will also drag on growth as international demand ebbs.

Bond markets are already signalling a sharp slowdown or recession in the US, while eurozone economies face the same strains as Britain from soaring energy bills.

Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, warns “the cost-of-living crisis and supply chain disruption mean growth is set to slow sharply.”

He added: “Indeed, our forecasts suggest GDP growth will average just 0.1pc in each of the remaining three quarters of this year – so while we aren’t currently forecasting a recession, it would not take much of a rise in oil prices or a disruption in supply chains to push the UK into one.”