Do red cards ruin matches? The impact of five recent dismissals assessed

Clearly, it is easier to evaluate the worth of a spectacle when you have not shelled out the price of admission. Keeping that in mind, then, what do paying supporters covet most in a match?

Quality would be nice. A sense of jeopardy often feels more important, though. When doubt over a result evaporates, a hollow feeling arises. That is what encourages the notion that red cards ruin games, with a 20-minute option designed to mitigate that risk.

Leaving aside the need for meaningful consequences, this is rarely the case. Jeopardy seldom disappears when a player is dismissed, especially when the setback happens to a well-coached team.

Rugby4Cast, a company that uses a machine-learning algorithm to predict scorelines, shared some of their research last month. Having examined around 300 matches involving sin-bins and sending-offs, they found that cards ‘cost’ the home side around 0.14 points per minute. For the away team, that doubled to 0.28 points per minute. Naturally, then, earlier red cards are more damaging. Fatigue will be one reason for that.

The score is only ever one part of a spectator’s experience. Here is a look at five recent red cards to see whether they did, indeed, ruin matches.

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