The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is under way after the Kremlin appeared to give up hope of taking Kyiv and toppling the government of Volodymyr Zelensky. More than 1,200 targets were hit by an artillery and rocket barrage along a 300-mile front in the Donbas and Kharkiv regions. The aim seems to be to cut off the area from the rest of the country and, presumably, to annex it as happened with Crimea in 2014.

For weeks it has been suggested that Vladimir Putin has May 9 in mind as the deadline for what he has called a “special military operation” in Ukraine but which the rest of the world has seen as a brutal and illegal infringement of its sovereignty. The significance is that it is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating the end of the “Great Patriotic War” against the Germans in 1945. Traditionally, Russian armed might is displayed in Moscow’s Red Square, including its nuclear arsenal.

President Putin will be anxious to achieve some objectives in Ukraine by then to “celebrate” at the parade. Perhaps the Kremlin hopes the status quo ante bellum can be restored after an interval if the fighting stops and Ukraine has been partitioned but this is not a resolution that the West should contemplate.

The defenders will continue to fight and deserve to be supported yet there are signs that the arms shipments are drying up. Moreover, will Germany and other countries dependent on Russian energy supplies really wean themselves off its oil and gas over the next year? The fact remains that almost £1 billion is being poured into Russian coffers every day by countries that have imposed sanctions in response to the invasion. For as long as that continues, Putin is winning.