Despite the extreme caution in the actions and rhetoric of the Moldovan authorities since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the threat of involvement in the conflict is becoming increasingly real for Moldova, writes BBC correspondent Anastasia Uspenskaya.

Chisinau sees the serious escalation in Transnistria, Moldova’s pro-Russian enclave, as a deliberate provocation.

For 48 hours, a series of explosions and shelling took place in Transnistria, damaging the building of the Ministry of State Security (a Transnistrian body not related to Moldovan structures) and dismantling the towers of a radio and television center owned by the Russian Television and Radio Broadcasting Network. .

“The purpose of these incidents is to create reasons for the aggravation of the security situation in the Transnistrian region, which is not controlled by the constitutional authorities of Moldova,” the government’s reintegration bureau said in a statement.

In addition, on April 26 and 27, Russia fired on a bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Odessa region, which connects the northern Odessa region with the southern Belgorod-Dniester, Reni, Bolgrad and other cities.

Observers say the escalation near Transnistria and the shelling of bridges in the Odesa region near Moldova may be part of Russia’s plan to destabilize the region. And maybe even attempts at a military operation.

After all, the Russian military command recently assumed the capture of southern Ukraine and the unification of these territories with Transnistria, where Russian troops are based.

Who can be behind the events in Transnistria? Consider some of the most discussed versions at the moment.

The escalation in Transnistria coincided with a statement by the deputy commander of the Central Military District, General Rustam Minnekayev.

On April 22, he announced that Russia had entered the “second phase of a special operation” aimed not only at establishing full control over Donbass, but also at capturing the entire south of Ukraine.

“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out in Transnistria, where the facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are also emphasized,” the Russian general said.

The position of the author of such a serious statement, as well as the place where it was made (at the meeting of the Union of Defense Industries of the Sverdlovsk region) raised many questions.

Can this statement be considered a change in the concept of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine? Is it sanctioned by the Kremlin? How is this in line with the previously stated goals of “protecting the population of Donbass”?

At the request of the BBC, the Russian Defense Ministry said that they understood, but did not refute the statement of General Minnekayev.

Commenting on recent events in Transnistria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said that Moscow hopes to avoid a situation where it will have to intervene in the settlement of the region. Many in Moldova saw the statement as an outright demonstration of the Kremlin’s true intentions.

According to Oazo Nantoi, a political scientist and member of the Moldovan parliament, one should ask oneself when analyzing all scenarios – Cui prodest? (Who benefits?)

He does not rule out that Russia has destabilized Moldova’s eastern regions to force some Ukrainian forces to redeploy from current combat zones to their southwestern borders to protect them.

“This is my attempt to find at least some logic. I believe that as long as Moldova, Ukraine and the regime in Tiraspol are not interested in destabilizing the situation, these provocations will not have serious consequences,” said the expert.

Ilya Barabanov, BBC correspondent

It is difficult for Russia to send additional troops to Transnistria, which is a narrow strip along the Dniester coast, Ukraine on the one hand and Moldova on the other. They will not be able to rotate through airports either.

Russia may try to open a conditional second front in a certain area. Belarus has been waiting for a long time to enter the war, but it never did. Perhaps Putin, in his desire to reach Odessa, will try to attract the population of Transnistria and arrange mobilization there.

On the Crimean side, the offensive on Odessa and Mykolayiv was choked. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Russia plans to thaw the Transnistrian conflict not in the direction of Chisinau, but in the direction of Odessa.

Especially since Russia began shelling the bridge across the Dniester estuary in the Odessa region.

Russia is trying to cut off from Odessa the southern part of the region, where Belgorod-Dniester, Tatarbunary, Izmail are located. Perhaps the Russian command wants to create a new bridgehead for the offensive against Odessa by the Transnistrian army.

This is an assumption, but events coincide so much in time that the generals may have something like this in their heads.

What we see in Transnistria is similar to what happened in the Donbass republics before February 24 and Russia’s full-scale offensive.

Therefore, perhaps Russia will try to create a new point of tension on the border with Ukraine, because the Armed Forces will have to send some forces there for protection, perhaps they want to weaken Ukrainian forces in the east.

I hope that the war will not come to Moldova, but this region must be closely monitored.

The Russian-speaking stratum of Moldovan society does not rule out that Moldova itself could have staged a provocation to increase the level of terrorist threat in the country and on this basis to completely ban any celebrations on May 9.

On May 19, President Maya Sandu signed a law banning the use of the St. George ribbon in the context of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, as well as the display of “Z” and “V” symbols.

Violations of the law are punishable by large fines.

Sandu stressed that the ban has nothing to do with the symbols of the 77-year-old war, but relates to today’s events in Ukraine.

However, Moldova’s socialists and communists, as well as their Russian-speaking electorate, insist that the government’s real goals are to completely wipe out WWII history and try to deprive most citizens of their cultural and historical heritage.

With the start of the war in Ukraine, the issue of oppression of Russian-speaking citizens of Moldova began to be actively raised again.

The Russian embassy in Chisinau said that discrimination on the basis of national, linguistic, cultural, religious and other grounds had become more frequent, and urged fellow tribesmen to write to the embassy’s e-mail address threatening their lives and health. moldova @ mail.ru.

The same General Rustam Minnekayev openly stated that the advance of the Russian army to Transnistria is necessary because the Russian-speaking population is oppressed there. The general did not specify how Russians are oppressed in the pro-Russian enclave.

Moldova demands that the Russian side refrain from statements that lead to tensions in society, calling them unfounded. But Chisinau acknowledges that Transnistria has been and remains Moscow’s tool in resolving the region’s geopolitical issues.

After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many Transnistrians began to hope that Russia was about to come after them. About 1,500 Russian troops are stationed in the unrecognized republic, and many believe they can ensure the unimpeded passage of Russian tanks into Moldova.

According to the official version of Tiraspol, Ukrainian saboteurs are behind the attacks in Transnistria. Their goal is to involve Transnistria in the conflict. However, the head of the region Vadym Krasnosilskyi did not explain why, in his opinion, Ukraine needs it.

The RPG-22 and RPG-27 tubes, which were found at the site of the MGB building attack, are not in Ukraine’s possession. They are in the service of a very limited number of countries, including Russia, says Transnistrian analyst Mykola Kuzmin. Ukraine can only guess at them and get them to substitute Russia. ”

According to him, Russia’s actions in Ukraine are supported by about half of the region’s residents, and a quarter still do not fully understand what is happening. Many are apolitical, but pursue their economic interests, others are afraid of the prospect of being in hostilities.

According to the expert, it is an exaggeration to say that the Transnistrians are waiting for the arrival of the Russian army.

The Transnistrian village of Kovbasna, near the border with Ukraine, has the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. It appeared in the 1940s, but most of the weapons were stored there after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the GDR, Czechoslovakia and other countries of the former socialist camp.

It is gaining momentum that Ukraine, in the absence of armaments, is extremely interested in gaining this composition.

This version does not stand up to criticism from Western military experts, primarily because in the current war, Ukraine is in dire need of the latest anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, which by definition can not be in the stockpile of Soviet ammunition.

Also, after long-term conservation, no wheeled or tracked vehicles will leave immediately. And most importantly, experts say, a deliberate provocation in the rear, on the western flank, when all forces are drawn to the east, would be complete madness on the part of Kyiv.

On the morning of April 27, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of unrecognized Transnistria reported about drones over the village of Kovbasna, which they noticed last night.

The ministry claims that Kovbasna came under fire from the Ukrainian side at 8:45 local time and no one was injured.

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