Poland, followed by Bulgaria, refused to pay for gas according to the scheme proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Wednesday Gazprom stopped pumping gas to them. The Russian service of the BBC figured out whether this loss is great for Russian exports, and what awaits the “refuseniks” themselves.

On the morning of April 27, Russia stopped supplying gas to Bulgaria and Poland because it refused to pay for it “in rubles.” In the evening of the same day, it became known that Finland would follow their example ( said the country’s minister for European affairs) and Estonia ( said the head of a local gas company).

Gazprom has not yet reacted, but judging by the cases of other countries, stopping pumping is a matter of the near future.

“Gas for rubles” is not quite the correct name for the scheme, due to which the valves are twisted. Its essence is that “unfriendly” countries (in particular, the entire EU) must pay for gas in foreign currency – as prescribed in the contracts – but not to the European account of Gazprom, but to their own account in the Russian Gazprombank.

Such accounts have already been opened by 10 countries, one of them may be Italy, writes Bloomberg. So far, only Hungary has officially agreed to the Russian scheme.

Having received the currency from the buyer, Gazprombank itself must exchange it for rubles and credit them to the account of the seller, Gazprom. That is, it is not the buyer who “pays in rubles”, but “Gazprom” “receives payment in rubles.” When the rubles get into his account, the obligation to pay will be considered fulfilled.

The last stage is the main difference between the new scheme and the previous one (“Gazprom” has long been obliged to change part of its foreign exchange earnings into rubles), and the main stumbling block. The European Commission sees here a possible violation of sanctions. She explains it this way: the conversion process is completely in the hands of the Russian authorities, which means that the Central Bank (which, according to the sanctions, should be cut off from foreign exchange transactions) can get access to it.

Also, the law on “gas for rubles” does not fix the period within which Gazprombank must change the currency, which means that the process can be long. Then the payment will turn into a loan to a Russian legal entity from a European one, which is also prohibited by sanctions.

Definitely a “clean” option from the sanctions point of view is to do everything the old way: Russia considers the contract paid at the moment when the currency “falls” into the account of Gazprom (it doesn’t matter where it is opened), the European Commission explains .

Its head, Ursula von der Leyen, called Gazprom’s refusal to pump oil to Poland and Bulgaria another provocation. “No wonder the Kremlin is using energy resources for blackmail,” she said.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to consider the new scheme blackmail and called it a natural step in response to the fact that “a significant part of the reserves” was stolen from Russia.

Most likely, it is – in the sense that the scheme really became an expression of the fears of the Russian authorities that “European gas buyers will send euros to European accounts and arrest them themselves,” an economist at Renaissance Bank ironically said in a conversation with the BBC. Capital” Sofia Donets. She considers such a scenario unlikely.

At first, it will not be easy for them, like all European countries. Russia accounts for 40% of all gas supplies to the EU – so it will be more difficult to refuse it than oil and coal.

At the same time, the position of Bulgaria and, first of all, Poland is much more advantageous than their neighbors.

First, their multi-year contracts with Gazprom expired this year anyway, says Marcel Salikhov, president of the Institute of Energy and Finance. Second, they have obvious alternatives to Russian gas.

For Poland, this is Baltic Pipe, a gas pipeline from Norway, which should be completed by October 2022, just in time for the heating season. “Norwegian gas will be slightly more expensive than Russian gas, but the difference is insignificant,” says investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov.

Poland is completely ready to give up Russian gas, assures Piotr Naimsky, its authorized representative for strategic energy infrastructure. He hopes that the country will receive 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year through Baltic Pipe. Almost the same amount – 9.67 billion – was pumped into it by Gazprom (this is its official data for 2020, there are no later ones).

Everything is more complicated with Bulgaria. On the one hand, it is almost 90% dependent on Russian gas. On the other hand, the country receives gas from Azerbaijan. Salikhov emphasizes that Bulgaria was going to refuse Russian gas before, but not because of politics, but because Azerbaijani gas is cheaper. The interconnector (additional pipeline) Greece-Bulgaria is about to be launched , and the country will be able to significantly increase its supplies.

Finally, Greece has a floating terminal for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which Bulgaria can also buy. All this is not a guarantee that Bulgaria will not feel the loss of Russian gas at all. But at least it has the infrastructure to do so.

It is possible that these countries will continue to receive Russian gas through resellers, admits Salikhov.

“Europe has a single gas market, so there will be no major difficulties, except for political ones. At the level of companies, such a scheme can be organized,” he explains.

The European Commission last year formulated a plan for a gradual break in gas relations with Russia. It was quite relaxed, with a deadline of 2050. But the war changed things.

The new plan, announced on March 8, is scheduled until 2030. According to it, the EU countries will be obliged to fill gas storage facilities by at least 90% by October 1 of each year (usually by the beginning of the heating season they are filled by 20-30%). Whose gas we are talking about and whether it can be Russian is not specified.

The countries will also actively increase gas supplies, in particular, LNG from Norway (23% of all supplies to the EU now), Algeria (12%), Qatar (5%), the USA (6%), Azerbaijan and other countries.

The last point of the plan is an accelerated transition to renewable energy. To this end, the EU authorities, among other things, want to speed up the certification of all projects in this area and urge Europeans to install solar panels on the roof of their homes.

The biggest gas consumers – Germany, Italy and France – will find it hardest to do this, says Salikhov of the Energy and Finance Institute.

“For Gazprom, the loss of Poland and Bulgaria is a loss of revenue, a reduction in investments, and possibly the conservation of fields. For the Russian budget, a loss of taxes,” warns Suverov from Arikapital.

Poland and Bulgaria, which have already stopped gas supplies, accounted for about 8-9% of its exports from Russia to Europe. At a very rough estimate, this is equivalent to about 600 billion rubles (based on the size of Gazprom’s net profit in 2021). Noticeable, but not critical.

For comparison, 45% of Gazprom’s total exports went to Germany and France. The loss of these countries would be much more painful and would amount to trillions of rubles.

But it’s too early to talk about it. The EU is much more tied to Russian gas than to oil. At the same time, it is much more difficult to refuse it: as a group of influential economists wrote in an open letter, it is hardly possible to quickly replace supplies.