Despite the extreme caution in the actions and rhetoric of the Moldovan authorities from the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the threat of being drawn into the conflict is becoming more and more real for Moldova.

A serious escalation in Transnistria – a pro-Russian enclave of Moldova – Chisinau sees as a deliberate provocation.

Within 48 hours, a series of explosions and shelling took place on the territory of Transnistria, as a result of which the building of the Ministry of State Security (a Transnistrian body that is not related to the structures of Moldova) was damaged and the towers of the radio and television center belonging to the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “Russian Television and Radio Broadcasting Network” were disabled.

“The purpose of these incidents is to create pretexts for aggravating the security situation in the Transnistrian region, which is not controlled by the constitutional authorities of Moldova,” the government’s Bureau for Reintegration said in a statement .

Who can be behind the events in Transnistria? And what is Moldova going to do? Consider the four most discussed versions at the moment.

The escalation in Transnistria coincided with the statement of the Deputy Commander of the Central Military District, General Rustam Minnekaev. On April 22, he announced that Russia had entered the “second phase of a special operation”, the goal of which was not only to establish complete control over the Donbass, but also to seize the entire south of Ukraine .

“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population,” the Russian general said.

The position of the author of such a serious statement, as well as the place where it was made (at a meeting of the Union of Defense Industries of the Sverdlovsk Region) raised many questions.

Can this statement be considered a change in the concept of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine? Is it sanctioned by the Kremlin? How is this consistent with the previously stated goals solely about “protecting the population of Donbass”?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not comment on issues related to the military campaign and did not clarify the situation. At the request of the BBC, the Russian Ministry of Defense replied that they were looking into it, but did not refute the statements of General Minnekaev.

Commenting on the latest developments in Transnistria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said that Moscow hopes to avoid a situation where it will have to intervene in the settlement in the region. This statement was perceived by many in Moldova as a blatant demonstration of the true intentions of the Kremlin.

The Russian-speaking stratum of Moldovan society does not exclude that Moldova itself could arrange a provocation in order to increase the level of terrorist threat in the country and, on this basis, completely ban any celebrations on May 9th.

On May 19, President Maia Sandu signed a law banning the use of the St. George ribbon “in the context of Russia’s military aggression” against Ukraine, as well as the display of the “Z” and “V” symbols. Violations of the law are punishable by heavy fines.

Sandu stressed that the ban has nothing to do with the symbols of the war 77 years ago, but with today’s events in Ukraine.

However, the socialists and communists of Moldova, as well as their Russian-speaking electorate, insist that the true goals of the government are the complete erasure of the history of the Second World War and an attempt to deprive most of the citizens of their cultural and historical heritage.

They remind that the proposal of the pro-presidential Action and Solidarity party to ban the showing of Soviet films about the Great Patriotic War on any resources is currently under consideration by the Parliament.

A meeting of the Public Council “For a Free Motherland!” is scheduled for Wednesday in Chisinau, at which it is supposed to coordinate the events dedicated to May 9.

“In connection with the current situation in the country, more than ever, regardless of political views, we need to unite and come up with a unified position,” says Council Chairman Igor Tulyantsev.

However, now Chisinau can use the escalation in Transnistria as an excuse to cancel any mass events, supporters of the festive processions say.

This has already happened in Transnistria itself, where the highest “red” level of terrorist threat has been set for the next 15 days, and the authorities had to cancel the Victory Parade scheduled for May 9.

Following the emergency meeting of the Security Council of Moldova, on Tuesday, President Maia Sandu said that, according to the information available to the authorities , the forces of Transnistria itself are involved in the escalation of the situation in Transnistria.

With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the issue of oppression of Russian-speaking citizens of Moldova again began to be actively exaggerated.

The Russian embassy in Chisinau stated that cases of discrimination on national, linguistic, cultural, religious and other grounds have become more frequent in the country, and called on fellow tribesmen in case of a threat to life and health to write to the embassy’s e-mail, and the address of which appears as a distress signal – sos.moldova@ mail.ru.

The same General Rustam Minnekaev openly stated that the advance of the Russian army to Transnistria is necessary, since the Russian-speaking population is oppressed there. How the Russians are oppressed in the pro-Russian enclave, the general did not elaborate.

Moldova demanded from the Russian side to refrain from statements leading to tension in society, calling them unfounded. But Chisinau recognizes that Pridnestrovie has been and remains Moscow’s tool in resolving geopolitical issues in the region.

After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many Transnistrians began to hope that Russia was about to come after them. About 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed on the territory of the unrecognized republic, and, according to many, they can ensure the unimpeded passage of Russian tanks to the territory of Moldova.

According to the official version of Tiraspol, Ukrainian saboteurs are behind the attacks in Transnistria. Their goal is to draw Transnistria into the conflict. True, the head of the region, Vadim Krasnoselsky, did not explain why, in his opinion, Ukraine needs this.

“The RPG-22 and RPG-27 tubes that were found at the site of the shelling of the MGB building are not in service with Ukraine. They are in service with a very limited number of countries, including Russia,” says Nikolai Kuzmin, an analyst from Transnistria. “Could Ukraine have them to get and thus frame Russia, one can only guess.

According to him, about half of the region’s residents support Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and another quarter do not fully understand what is happening. Many are apolitical but pursue their economic interests, others are frightened by the prospect of being in combat.

In this situation, the expert is sure, to say that Pridnestrovians are waiting for the arrival of the Russian army is an exaggeration.

The Transnistrian village of Kolbasna, near the border with Ukraine, hosts the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. It appeared back in the 1940s, but most of the weapons were brought there for storage after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the GDR, Czechoslovakia and other countries of the former socialist camp.

The version is gaining momentum that Ukraine, in the face of a shortage of weapons, is extremely interested in taking possession of this warehouse.

This version does not stand up to criticism from Western military experts, primarily because in the conditions of the current war, Ukraine is in dire need of the latest anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, which, by definition, cannot be in the Soviet ammunition depot.

Also, after a long conservation, no wheeled or tracked vehicles will immediately go. And most importantly, experts say, a deliberate provocation in its rear, on the western flank, when all forces are pulled to the east, would be complete madness on the part of Kyiv.

At the same time, the West believes that the warehouse in Kolbasna deserves immediate attention.

“That’s 22,000 tons of ammunition guarded by the Russian contingent, just two kilometers from the Ukrainian border. […] And now Transnistria, as we see, may have the opportunity to open a fourth front,” says Isaac Evans, an expert in the field frozen conflicts of the international organization OWP, which develops peacekeeping strategies.

In his opinion, the warehouse in Transnistria poses a threat to the entire region, including Kyiv, and Moldova should return to discussing its disposal as soon as possible.

The UK has also repeatedly drawn the attention of the West to the existence of a problem.

“We urge Russia to urgently formulate a proposal to resume the process of removing and destroying ammunition from the Kolbasna facility,” Neil Bush, head of the British delegation to the OSCE, has repeatedly said.

On Tuesday, Moldovan President Maia Sandu held an emergency meeting of the Security Council, following which it was decided to strengthen the patrolling of the border between Moldova and Transnistria, increase the level of protection of infrastructure facilities and institutions responsible for public order and security.

The European Union is extremely concerned about a possible spiral of tension between Chisinau and Tiraspol. The EU asks the parties to remain calm and not succumb to provocations.

According to political scientist and member of the Moldovan Parliament Oazu Nantoi, when analyzing all the above scenarios, one should ask oneself – Cui prodest? (Who benefits?)

“We have to ask ourselves, who is satisfied with this situation. The Republic of Moldova? Definitely not. Ukraine? No, because Ukraine needs to concentrate all its forces in areas of real combat confrontation with the Russian Federation. The regime in Tiraspol? Given that this regime is more of a mafia rather than representing the interests of Russia, rather not,” Nantoi believes.

He does not rule out that Russia went to destabilize the eastern regions of Moldova in order to force part of the Ukrainian forces to redeploy from the current combat zones to its southwestern borders to protect them.

“This is my attempt to find at least some logic. I believe that as long as Moldova, Ukraine and the regime in Tiraspol are not interested in destabilizing the situation, these provocations will not have serious consequences,” the expert said.

Until the end of the week, an OSCE delegation will arrive in Moldova, which usually acts as an intermediary in the dialogue between the parties. However, Western partners believe that now, against the backdrop of provocations and the approaching front line, Chisinau and Tiraspol should agree to direct negotiations.

On Tuesday, the Moldovan Information Security Service (ISS) initiated a joint investigation with the authorities of Transnistria of the events.