Emmanuel Macron was re-elected President of France. For the second time, the Liberal leader won Marine Le Pen, who tried to persuade voters with her more moderate program, but was unable to get rid of the association with far-right ideas or Kremlin influence for most voters.

France is a presidential republic, and the president has the greatest powers in the field of foreign policy. As Macron will no longer need to be re-elected, it is expected that he will use the second term to adopt radical reforms.

Are such expectations regarding foreign policy justified and how exactly can Ukraine benefit from his re-election?

First of all, it is already clear that Macron’s second term will take place in the context of growing political confrontation. This election showed a split within France.

According to the results of the election , in the second round Emmanuel Macron received the support of 58.5% or 18.8 million voters, Marine Le Pen – 41.5% or 13.3 million voters. Compared to the 2017 election, the incumbent lost almost 2 million votes in the second round, while Le Pen received an additional 2.6 million votes.

By Ukrainian standards, the turnout may seem high – almost 72% of voters went to the polls, but it is the worst turnout in France’s second presidential election since 1969.

In addition, 3 million of the 35 million voters (8.6%) who came to the polls dropped blank or spoiled ballots, showing hostility to both candidates.

French political scientists say three powerful political camps have now sprung up in the country, and the old parties that dominated the political arena from the 1960s to 2017 – the Socialists and Conservatives (the Republicans) – are a thing of the past – their presidential candidates together they received only 6% of the vote this time.

“We can talk about the complete collapse of the political system on which the Fifth Republic was based, which has existed since 1958. There are now three poles in French politics. life in France and the growing confrontation between these poles, “said Alexander Melnik , a professor of geopolitics at the ICN Business School in Paris.

His words confirm the results of the first round, which took place on April 12. After all, all candidates – Macron, Le Pen and Melanchon (won 28% in the first round, 23% and 22% respectively) – have increased the core of their supporters compared to the 2017 election. Over the past five years, the dislike of left-wing voters for Macron, whom at least some of them consider “the president of the rich,” has grown significantly. In the second round, according to Ipsos , 41% of Melanchon’s voters abstained, 42% voted for Macron and 17% for Le Pen, despite Melanchon’s calls not to vote for her.

If you take the first round, the representatives of all parties, far-left and far-right, who position themselves as anti-systemic, opposed to democracy, received 55%. There is a lack of trust in political institutions, this is facilitated by various conspiracy theories. conspiracy of pharmaceutical groups during a pandemic and many others. Many people do not believe in science, protest against sanitary restrictions, “- said French political scientist, president of the CERAP research center Nicolas Tenser .

In general, those French people who believe in liberal ideas believe that success can be achieved in the country if you work and take responsibility for your fate, and do not consider globalization evil, choose Macron.

The other two key candidates were anti-systemic, and their constituents see the current economic order as unfair, if not harmful.

On the side of the 70-year-old extroxtist, leader of the leftist party “Rebellious France” Melanchon – a lot of young people who are concerned about social stratification and the fact that their generation will live worse than the generation of their parents. Almost 33% of French people aged 18-34 voted for him in the first round of elections.

“There is public distrust of political institutions and politics in general. I observe this as a teacher. Although there have been no polls, I think many students in private business schools have voted for Melanchon because he embodies this gap with the existing system. Although, in my opinion, it does not embody anything, but tries to make a return to the past, “says Melnyk.

Le Pen’s voters are also characterized by concerns about social issues, declining purchasing power, but unlike Melanchon’s voters, they also advocate for maximum restrictions on migration to the country – Le Pen promised after the election a referendum on migration.

Add to that the 23% of the votes Le Pen won in the first round, and another 7% for the more radical candidate, Reconquista leader Eric Zemmour, who vowed to fight ruthlessly against Islamist, left-wing and anti-migration influence. , you can understand the scale of anti-immigration sentiment.

“Why has the support of the far right increased so much? There is an opinion that elites are far from the people. And I think we are paying now for the lack of money for education. When conspiracy theories spread, it means critical thinking. And such a population is very susceptible to the theories and practices of the far right. Now it has become a phenomenon of cultural and educational crisis, “- said political scientist Nicolas Tenzer.

The election showed a split between different groups.

For example, retirees and young people have worked hard to prevent Le Pen from becoming president.

In the second round, 68% of French retirees and 61% of French youth aged 18-24 voted for Macron.

This is not surprising, because for many French retirees, Marine Le Pen is still associated with her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who never hid his far-right views.

But among the French aged 25-59, the votes for Macron and Le Pen were almost equally divided, which shows a high level of dissatisfaction with the situation in the country among the working population.

High or extremely low incomes were sympathetic – 56% of French people with a monthly income of less than 1,250 euros voted for Le Pen, and 65% of French people with a monthly income of more than 3,000 euros supported Macron. In total, 56% of French people considered by sociologists to be “lower middle class” and 71% of “upper middle class” supported the incumbent president, while 65% of the poor voted for Marine Le Pen.

The split of voters in the socio-professional field is also eloquent. 67% of French workers and 57% of employees, 64% of the unemployed supported Le Pen. Instead, 77% of company executives and 58% of the self-employed supported Macron.

Another dividing line – the big cities that voted for Macron and the countryside that feels abandoned by power – preferred Le Pen.

Immediately after the second round of the presidential election, both Le Pen and Melenchon called on their supporters to fight Macron’s supporters in the “third round” – in the parliamentary elections to be held in June.

The French will elect the lower house of parliament in two rounds under the majority system.

This system, which has existed for many decades, has always favored the largest and most moderate parties, as anti-systemic candidates rarely made it to the second round because no one wanted to form coalitions with them. But this time, candidates from the coalition of left-wing parties, led by Melanchon’s Rebellious France or Le Pen, have more motivation and a chance to win a seat in parliament under Macron’s slogans.

No one can predict the outcome of the parliamentary elections, as candidates from the old Socialist or Republican parties have worked directly with local voters for many years and may enter parliament despite the fiasco of those parties and the triumph of Melanchon and Le Pen’s “anti-systemics”. presidential election.

But there is a possibility that Macron’s party “Forward, Republic!” will not be able to repeat the result in 53% of the seats she won 5 years ago, will remain in the minority, and the majority in the next parliament will be in opposition to the president and form a government hostile to him.

“France will continue to be fragmented and atomized, and the question is whether it will be able to reform at all,” said Alexander Melnik.

He predicts that there will be a proliferation movement in France to limit the president’s powers, transition to a parliamentary republic and a proportional electoral system to limit Macron’s influence.

And the increase in the retirement age from 62 to 65 proposed by Macron may provoke protests, according to the Ifop poll, 77% of French people do not support this idea. So the world may be witnessing the emergence of new protest movements, such as yellow vests, whose protests against rising fuel prices marked Macron’s first term.

Although France is likely to face great political confrontation in the domestic sphere, everything in foreign policy will depend largely on the will of the president.

Against this background, the re-election of Emanuel Macron is a positive signal for Ukraine, although Ukrainians have been mocking his attempts to negotiate with Vladimir Putin for the past two months.

However, there are signs that the French president is preparing for tougher action against Russia – he recently announced that Ukraine will receive from France self-propelled artillery Caesar. It is hoped that arms supplies from France will increase and France will abandon the purchase of Russian energy.

“The election was a relief. If Le Pen won, it would be a disaster for France, Europe and Ukraine,” said Tenser. “She is well acquainted with Russia. NATO command, etc. And Macron left his utopias about Russia, he realized that this is a huge danger and he is really on the side of Ukraine. ”

Tenzer calls a positive signal that Macron has agreed to supply arms to Ukraine and wants to pay a visit to Ukraine.

The attitude of Macron’s rivals, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melanchon, to the Russian-Ukrainian war is controversial, although both have condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

For example, Le Pen, while condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine, reiterated her support for the 2014 Crimean referendum in Russia and opposed an embargo on Russian energy on the grounds that it could affect French living standards. . And Emmanuel Macron during the debate reminded the French that Marine Le Pen in 2014 took a loan for his party in a bank linked to the Russian state.

Melanchon, who has previously supported Russia’s annexation of Crimea, this time spoke out against Putin’s “war” and called for support for Ukrainian refugees. At the same time, he does not support the transfer of arms to Ukraine and opposes NATO strengthening. In addition, Melanchon has friendly relations with the leader of Russia’s Left Front, Stalinist Sergei Udaltsov, who supported the separatists in the Donbas and accused Ukraine of shooting down a Malaysian Boeing.

Alexander Melnyk believes that radical changes in Macron’s policy towards Russia should not be expected before the end of the parliamentary elections in June and much will depend on whether he will be able to convince the French of the need for tough action against Russia.

“We need to share desires and opportunities. I think Macron wants more pressure on Putin and the struggle for the values that Ukraine defends. But we need to follow the path of a full embargo on trade with Russia. France does not do that because they are used to the comfort zone. does not allow us to assess the tragedy and importance of everything that is happening now. I do not know whether Macron is able to prove the need for this to the French, “explains Alexander Melnyk.

In his opinion, it is even more difficult to convince people that Russia went to war not only against Ukraine, but against Europe and Western civilization.

“France is doing its best not to be a party to the war, even though it has already begun. For most French people, it remains a distant war. – says Melnik.

Similarly, it will be difficult to persuade Macron’s French business to leave Russia.

“Business must understand that geopolitics at some point in history is more important than business. And miscalculation can cancel out all successes in the economy. And keep in mind the example of Louis Reno, who collaborated with Hitler and then died in prison, and his company where Gaul nationalized. ”

French political scientists interviewed by BBC News Ukraine admit that the French will have to prove the need for a radical change in policy towards Russia.

According to Alexander Melnik, in order for the West to win, it is necessary to impose a global embargo against Russia, to provide military assistance to Ukraine, and this requires a strong NATO, preferably with the participation of Ukraine.

“Putin believes that Ukraine does not exist, that it is a province of Russia. He will go to the end. The only thing that can stop Russia is transatlantic solidarity. This war can only be overcome by force, and open and direct US and NATO involvement in the conflict “The negotiations that Macron was engaged in only lead to the fact that France and Western Europe are no longer taken seriously,” said Melnyk.

According to him, the West should stop being afraid of Russia and respond to the “bluff on the use of nuclear weapons” with an even bigger bluff.

“We hope that Macron’s approach will be tougher after the election. I think he has begun to understand that the only solution to this situation is to make Ukraine win the war. I personally insist that Ukraine’s victory is to regain full control of Donbass. and Crimea, and there is no need to discuss anything with Putin, because he is completely trapped. There should be no compromise with Putin, “said Nicolas Tanzer.

“I would not like to use the term World War III, because it is used by Kremlin propaganda to frighten us and make us not react to the war against Ukraine. But it is definitely a war against the West. And it is necessary that France and other allies, first of all “Everything, the United States, has done everything possible to ensure Ukraine’s victory in Ukraine, so that there are no intermediate options for gaining time, we must go to the end and trap Putin further,” he added.

Both political scientists are impressed by the level of solidarity with Ukrainian refugees currently shown by French society.

“This situation has awakened the best thing in French society – solidarity,” says Alexander Melnik.

“There are more French people who are aware of the dangers of Russia and Putin’s policies, and French people who are aware of the need to help refugees,” Tenser said.

Recent polls show that 81% of French people are in favor of stopping the purchase of Russian gas, and 42% are absolutely convinced of the need for such a decision.

And this is already a positive for Ukraine – it will be easier to convince the French of the need for radical action against Russia than, for example, Austria or Germany.

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