- Hugh Scofield
- BBC correspondent in Paris
The BBC News Russian Service app is available for IOS and Android . You can also subscribe to our Telegram channel.
Despite all possible reservations, the scale of Emmanuel Macron’s victory should be recognized. This is rarely remembered, but in the history of the Fifth French Republic, this is the first time that a president who had full power managed to be elected for a second term.
Formally, this has already happened. But both François Mitterrand in 1988 and Jacques Chirac in 2002, in the period leading up to the vote, were in fact in opposition. In both cases (after the mid-term parliamentary elections), the government ended up in the hands of opponents of the president. Therefore, Mitterrand and Chirac, although they were formally at the helm, were considered politically powerless. Only in the next elections did they manage to become the real leaders of the country.
As for the victory of Charles de Gaulle in 1965, before that he had not been elected by the people.
So, Emmanuel Macron is the first president of modern France, who, after serving a full term and managing all aspects of foreign and domestic policy, once again won the trust of the people.
For France, where the relationship between citizens and government is essentially one of first cheering the new president on and then getting rid of him at the first opportunity, this is a significant achievement.
Macron achieved this mainly due to two circumstances, one of which will prove useful in the next presidential term, and the second not so much.
If we ignore the mass of cartoons on social networks, then according to the results of the elections, we can assume that millions of French people consider Emmanuel Macron a good president. These people understand that unemployment is no longer a political issue, thanks in large part to Macron’s reforms . They believe he handled the pandemic skillfully and agree that a postponement of the retirement age is inevitable.
They like a leader who is quite capable of holding his own in the international arena. They are glad that someone is sitting in the Elysee Palace who is able to speak directly with Putin , even if these negotiations are not crowned with success.
And they believe that under Macron, France can claim leadership in Europe, and his vision of greater military and economic autonomy for the EU looks increasingly relevant. In this, Macron is profoundly different from Marine Le Pen.
These people don’t necessarily like Emmanuel Macron – he’s too unlike them – but he commands enough respect.
France is divided, the EU is delighted
Katya Adler , BBC European Policy Editor
On the eve of Sunday’s presidential election, the French we spoke to told us: “I will vote for Macron, but only to keep Le Pen out of power.”
A concerted public effort to keep a far-right or right-wing nationalist candidate out of the running for president is nothing new in France.
However, the result of the vote should make Emmanuel Macron think. His campaign slogan “Pour Tous” (“For all”) looks almost a mockery if you try to estimate the real number of his supporters. After all, they cannot include those who voted for the incumbent president only to prevent Le Pen from coming to power, 40% of the supporters of the leader of the “National Association” – and millions more who spoiled their ballot or refused to vote at all.
In his speech, Macron has already acknowledged that the country is divided and that he will do everything possible to bridge these divisions.
It won’t be easy, and he knows it.
France is fragmented along more than just party lines. Polarization is everywhere: between wealthy urban centers (especially Paris) and small towns and villages; between nationalists and internationalists; between the rich, the poor and the marginalized.
Since becoming president five years ago, Macron has vowed to favor neither the right nor the left, uphold social justice, and kickstart a stalled economy.
But then the pandemic began, followed by an economic downturn and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not to mention the constant pressure on Macron due to the growing attention to the problems of immigration and law and order, traditionally a priority for right-wing and far-right politicians. Promised social justice and environmental reforms have fallen by the wayside.
However, Macron is loved in Brussels. At least compared to his rival for the presidency.
Looking at the tweets of EU leaders – from the President of the European Commission to the Prime Ministers of Spain and Portugal and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – one gets the feeling that they were not only congratulating Macron, but also trumpeting the vote of confidence in Europe they found in his victory.
Le Pen is a passionate Euroskeptic, while Macron supports the EU with great enthusiasm. His long-discussed proposals to make Europe more independent – in terms of food production, energy and defense – have become very popular among EU leaders in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic disrupting global supply chains.
As the second largest economy in the EU and the only (after Brexit) major military power, France has long played a leading role in Brussels and NATO.
Le Pen’s historically close ties to Moscow and her intention to remove France from NATO military command have worried American and European allies.
Now they are much less concerned. “We can count on France for another five years,” European Council President Charles Michel wrote on Sunday evening.
New test ahead
However, another circumstance that brought Macron to the Elysee Palace for the second time may turn against him in the future.
Five years ago, Macron made excellent use of the state of contemporary French politics. He took a centrist position and thus destroyed the traditional confrontation between conservatives and social democrats. And using the powers laid down by de Gaulle in the system of power of the Fifth Republic, he created a centralized system of presidential government that was very closed to his personality.
The opposition had to move to the right and left ends of the political spectrum, where, as Macron believed, they could not pose a real threat to his power. Until now, this scheme has worked – as shown by the past elections.
However, they also demonstrated something else: more and more French people are ready to flirt with extreme political forces, also because, by uniting the center, Macron has deprived them of an alternative: if they don’t like the president, they have no one else to vote for.
Many of those voters, especially the millions who voted for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, are now willing to take their revenge on the newly re-elected head of state.
They hope to be able to do so in the parliamentary elections in June. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll be happy to take part in anti-Macron street demonstrations in September, especially if he’s launched a new reform package by then.
Emmanuel Macron will start his second term by promising to create a new type of government. He will listen more. He knows to heal the wounds. The problem is, he’s said it before – and a lot of people just don’t believe him.
“These elections not only showed that there are two opposing Frances. They also revealed a growing tendency for people to see the opposing political camp as simply not having a right to exist,” says columnist Natasha Polony. president of all the French. This time I’m not sure if that’s the case.”
To keep getting BBC news, subscribe to our channels:
Download our application: